From 054bd0794c860d424e52fc02262c520da43d2e6f Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001 From: Sylpheed RE agent Date: Thu, 27 Aug 2026 01:55:07 +0000 Subject: [PATCH] re: CONFIRMED -- the A-route arrival times predict the OB counter's steps exactly MIME-Version: 1.0 Content-Type: text/plain; charset=UTF-8 Content-Transfer-Encoding: 8bit Predicted from the disc alone, before the run: ADT102/ADT107/ADT113, each n=4, arrive at t=0/120/210, so the counter reads 004, steps to 008 at t=120 and 012 at t=210, and goes no higher in phase 1. Measured with the mission clock sampled beside the counter throughout: 004 held over six samples to 01:45.44 008 first seen at 02:00.87 -> step bracketed in (105.4s, 120.9s] 008 held over five samples to 03:17.55 012 first seen at 03:30.66 -> step bracketed in (197.6s, 210.7s] 012 held four more samples to 04:36.95, no 016 Both steps land on the predicted second, and the ceiling holds. Three independent features -- starting value, both step TIMES, and the ceiling -- came from Route_S02.tbl and UnitGroup_S02.tbl with nothing fitted to runtime data. So the counter's rises ARE the A-route attacker squadrons arriving. Status upgraded to CONFIRMED for the rises. The DECREMENT half stays 🟡 and is now the only open part: this run killed nothing, and the single observed 12 -> 11 remains one sample. --- docs/re/ob-counts-marked-attackers.md | 53 ++++++++++++++++++++++++++- 1 file changed, 51 insertions(+), 2 deletions(-) diff --git a/docs/re/ob-counts-marked-attackers.md b/docs/re/ob-counts-marked-attackers.md index a1fd0f0f..c6cb4098 100644 --- a/docs/re/ob-counts-marked-attackers.md +++ b/docs/re/ob-counts-marked-attackers.md @@ -1,7 +1,9 @@ # 🟡 What `REMAINING OB` counts — the marked attackers, four per arriving squadron -**Status: 🟡 HYPOTHESIS, assembled from existing measurements, NOT itself -measured.** It is recorded because it is the first reading that fits *every* +**Status: ✅ CONFIRMED for the counter's RISES — the `A`-route arrival times +predict every step to the second (measured 2026-08-27, see below). 🟡 the +DECREMENT half is still untested: no run has yet killed a marked attacker under +observation.** It is recorded because it is the first reading that fits *every* number this corpus has taken, and because it makes sharp predictions that one run can kill. @@ -224,3 +226,50 @@ unless the poll covers more than the objective. Unresolved here. * It does not explain the mechanism, only the arithmetic. The counter itself is the **HUD widget's value** ([`structures/mission-objective-counter.md`](structures/mission-objective-counter.md)); where the mission keeps its own tally is still ❔. + +--- + +# ✅ MEASURED — the arrival times predict the counter's steps exactly + +Stage 02, guarded route, stage asserted, mission clock sampled beside the counter +throughout ([capture](captures/ob-arrival-timing-confirmed.png)). + +The prediction, made from the disc alone before this run: the three `A`-route +squadrons `ADT102` / `ADT107` / `ADT113`, each `n = 4`, arrive at **t = 0 / 120 / +210**, so the counter should read `004`, step to `008` at **t = 120** and to +`012` at **t = 210**, and go no higher in phase 1. + +Observed: + +| mission `TIME` | `REMAINING OB` | | +|---|---|---| +| 00:12.33 → 01:45.44 | `004` | six samples | +| **02:00.87** | **`008`** | step bracketed in **(105.4 s, 120.9 s]** | +| 02:16.59 → 03:17.55 | `008` | five samples | +| **03:30.66** | **`012`** | step bracketed in **(197.6 s, 210.7 s]** | +| 03:47.19 → 04:36.95 | `012` | four samples, **no `016`** | + +**Both steps land on the predicted second.** 120 lies inside the first bracket +and 210 inside the second, and the ceiling holds at `012` for a further 86 s of +mission time. + +Three independent features — the starting value, the two step *times*, and the +ceiling — were all derived from `Route_S02.tbl` and `UnitGroup_S02.tbl` with +nothing fitted to the runtime data. ✅ The counter's rises **are** the `A`-route +attacker squadrons arriving. + +(The digits render highlighted on exactly the two samples where they change, +which is the game flashing the counter on update — a free extra confirmation that +those two frames are the transitions.) + +## 🟡 What is still not measured: the decrement + +Everything above concerns the counter going **up**. That the counter goes *down* +by one per marked attacker killed remains untested — the single observed +decrement (`12 → 11`) came from a run whose pilot killed attackers, which is +suggestive but is one sample, and this run killed nothing. + +The kill test is unchanged and is now the only open half: + +1. Kill ONE `e010` and nothing else → the counter must fall by exactly **1**. +2. Kill a turret → it must not move.