diff --git a/docs/re/METHOD.md b/docs/re/METHOD.md index 76997d4e..da345d6b 100644 --- a/docs/re/METHOD.md +++ b/docs/re/METHOD.md @@ -1372,3 +1372,36 @@ crate's fixed output, so a fault in the fix would reproduce. Recorded at that strength and no higher. The distinction worth keeping: *a different asset* is real evidence about generality; *a different implementation* is what makes it independent, and only one of those two was present. + +## The instrument can be sound, the number correct, and the sentence around it wrong + +Almost everything else in this file is about a broken or misspecified instrument. +This one is different, and the port agent named it after hitting it twice in a +fortnight: + +* it measured a **3.4 s near-silent seam** in its menu bed — correctly — and wrote + it up as *"the cost of the missing loop point"*. The seam was real; it was + produced by **our own loop**, and the game has none. It then reached a + `BLOCKED.md` entry and a message to me, both carrying the wrong cause. +* it measured a leading chunk correlating at **r=0.998** with another stream's tail + — correctly — and called it *a duplicate*. It was a **start-truncated simultaneous + stream**, and the flush-against-the-end alignment is exactly what truncation + predicts. + +Both times the number survived scrutiny and the **attribution** did not. + +⚠️ **No amount of instrument control catches this.** Controls test whether the +measurement is faithful; they say nothing about the clause that follows it. The +defences that do work are different in kind: + +* **name the alternative explanation explicitly** and say why it is excluded — "a + seam because we loop wrongly" was never written down as a candidate, so it was + never rejected; +* **notice when a measurement is being used to explain something it did not + measure.** The seam was measured *in our output*; the sentence made a claim about + *the game*. That step is where the error lives, and it is invisible while the + number stays in view. + +📌 A useful smell: a measurement that arrives already attached to a cause, and +whose cause happens to be the thing you were hoping to justify — a missing field, a +duplicate worth dropping. Both of these did.