re: refute the "counter sits at page offset 0x9668" prediction
The file proposed that the counter lives at a fixed offset inside an allocation whose base moves by whole 64 KB pages, and stated the test itself: "a third scan should again land on ...9668". Ran it on a fresh guarded Stage 02 run. Probing all 8192 pages of the form 0x????9668 across 0xa0000000-0xbfffffff: with the HUD at 004, exactly two VAs held 4 (0xbc3f9668, 0xbe3f9668); with the HUD at 012, ZERO held 12. Both candidates also failed the file's own transition rule -- over 252 s 0xbc3f9668 held a flat 4 and 0xbe3f9668 flickered 4/0 while the HUD went 004 -> 012. Both arms were sampled at the same instant (cropped HUD digits beside each memory read), after a stale-screenshot comparison earlier in this session produced a spurious 13-vs-004 mismatch. Scope kept narrow: this refutes the page-offset prediction, not the confirmed finding that 0xbdb59668 carries the counter in some runs. The counter's address in THIS run remains unknown -- no transition filter was run.
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@@ -163,6 +163,37 @@ HUD was confirmed at `012`.
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| filter | `012` (confirmed) | **17** |
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| later sample | — (see caveat) | 7 still 12 |
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> ## ❌ REFUTED 2026-08-26 — the page-offset `…9668` prediction does not hold
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>
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> The reading below — *"the counter lives at a fixed offset inside an allocation
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> whose base moves by whole 64 KB pages"* — came with its own test: **"a third
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> scan should again land on `…9668`."** That test has now been run, on a fresh
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> guarded Stage 02 run (stage asserted), and it fails.
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>
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> Probing **8192** pages, every VA of the form `0x????9668` across
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> `0xa0000000`–`0xbfffffff`:
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>
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> | HUD | VAs at offset `0x9668` holding that value |
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> |---|---|
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> | `004` | **2** — `0xbc3f9668`, `0xbe3f9668` |
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> | `012` | **0** |
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>
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> Both candidates then failed the file's own transition rule. Watched for 252 s:
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> `0xbc3f9668` held a flat **4** and `0xbe3f9668` flickered 4/0, while the HUD
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> went **004 → 012** ([capture](../captures/remaining-ob-012-crop.png)). A value
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> that does not move when the counter moves is not the counter, and at `012`
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> nothing at that page offset holds `12` at all.
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>
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> Both arms were read at the same instant (cropped HUD digits beside each memory
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> sample), because comparing a stale screenshot against a later memory read is
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> exactly how the earlier `13`-vs-`004` confusion in this session arose.
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>
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> ⚠️ **Scope, stated so this is not over-read:** this refutes the page-offset
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> prediction *for this run*. It does not touch the confirmed finding that
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> `0xbdb59668` carries the counter in some runs — that address is simply not at a
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> reachable `…9668` page here. Nor was the counter located in this run: no
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> transition filter was run, so where it actually lives this time is ❔.
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**The survivor of interest is `0xbdb49668`** — the run-1 address `0xbdb59668`
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**minus exactly `0x10000`**, at the identical page offset `0x9668`.
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