diff --git a/docs/re/BACKLOG.md b/docs/re/BACKLOG.md index 5a52dc42..d5b3f0e0 100644 --- a/docs/re/BACKLOG.md +++ b/docs/re/BACKLOG.md @@ -459,7 +459,16 @@ search cannot find a *schedule*. clean at 210/240/300 s but **frozen at 60 s** on a fourth. Tally — heavy probe froze at 27/45/83/183/255 s; cheap+rescan at 183 s; cheap, no rescan: 3 of 4 clean past 200 s. A large probability improvement, **not a fix**. Practical - rule: run, check the witness, discard frozen runs (~3 in 4 usable). The rescan + rule: run, check the witness, discard frozen runs (**3 clean of 5** now: clean + 210/240/300, frozen 60/90). +* 🚧 **BLOCKER (2026-08-24): route entries t=210 and t=240 are UNREACHABLE in one + turn.** 595 s shell cap − ~220 s boot (a ~190 s title movie that cannot be + tapped through) − ~25 s startup = **~350 s observation ≈ 193 game-seconds**. + t=90 needs 164 s wall ✅, t=120 → 218 s ✅, t=170 → 309 s ✅ (only on a + non-frozen run), **t=210 → 382 s ❌, t=240 → 436 s ❌**. No number of runs fixes + this. **Unblocking needs a decision I should not make alone:** (1) a safe way to + skip the title movie — it is >half the budget, and would roughly double the + window to ~297 game-s, covering everything; or (2) a longer shell timeout. The rescan existed only to catch newly-allocated craft, which the roster work showed never happens. * ✅ **Run 16: the first TRUSTWORTHY negative.** Validated witness, no stall on diff --git a/docs/re/mission-arrival-watch.md b/docs/re/mission-arrival-watch.md index ad2d2ccb..31e15e0d 100644 --- a/docs/re/mission-arrival-watch.md +++ b/docs/re/mission-arrival-watch.md @@ -390,3 +390,47 @@ already did. If that recovers most of the 100 s, the observation window grows from ~240 s to ~340 s — about **187 game-seconds**, which would finally reach the **t = 170** route entry. Not yet run. + +--- + +# 🚧 BLOCKER: two of the schedule's entries are unreachable in one turn (2026-08-24) + +This should have been computed several iterations ago instead of being +approached one run at a time. + +A turn's shell call is capped at 595 s. Boot costs ~220 s (a ~190 s title movie +that cannot be tapped through plus ~35 s to flight) and probe startup ~25 s, +leaving **~350 s of observation**. At the measured ~55 % of real-time, that is +**~193 game-seconds**. + +| route entry | wall-clock needed | status | +|---|---|---| +| t = 90 | 164 s | ✅ reachable — observed, no arrival | +| t = 120 | 218 s | ✅ reachable — observed, no arrival | +| t = 170 | 309 s | ✅ reachable, but only on a run that does not freeze | +| **t = 210** | **382 s** | ❌ **out of reach in one turn** | +| **t = 240** | **436 s** | ❌ **out of reach in one turn** | + +So the tail of Stage 02's phase-1 schedule cannot be tested under the current +harness at all, however many runs are attempted. Recorded as a blocker rather +than worked around. + +**What would unblock it,** neither of which is mine to decide: + +1. **Skip the title movie.** It is ~190 s of the 220 s boot — more than half the + budget — and `launch_mission.sh` waits it out because tapping breaks the + title. If there is a safe skip, the window roughly doubles to ~540 s ≈ 297 + game-seconds, which covers every entry including t = 240. +2. **A longer shell timeout**, if the harness allows it. + +## This run: discarded + +Frozen at t = 90 s, 15 stalled samples, 3 losses. Correctly flagged and not +interpreted. Freeze tally is now **3 clean of 5** (210, 240, 300 clean; 60, 90 +frozen), lower than the 3-of-4 quoted last iteration. + +## What stands + +**0 confirmed arrivals over 300 s of verified-live flight (~165 game-seconds)**, +covering the t = 90 and t = 120 route entries. That is unchanged, and it is the +strongest statement this harness can currently support.