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re: state 1 = not yet deployed, and arrivals are directly observed

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Watching [ScriptMission+40] and the three phase-1 objective squadrons together:
all of ADN110/111/112 flip state 1 -> 2 at ~143s, while records in state 2 climb
24 -> 35 over four minutes.

So state 1 means 'not yet deployed' for these, not 'gone'. The built-in table's
'1/3/4 = gone/dead/invalid' shorthand is incomplete, and reading state != 2 as
destroyed would have been wrong exactly as flagged last iteration.

This also answers a much older question: mission-arrival-watch.md and the wave
work recorded '0 confirmed arrivals' across many runs by watching the CRAFT
population. The script's own unit table shows arrivals plainly -- eleven records
enter state 2 within four minutes. The old negative measured the wrong
structure; craft counts conflate deployment with attrition, the per-unit state
field does not.

Both attempts froze (at ~70s and ~253s), so no phase advance was reached. The
freeze witness caught both immediately, which is why the truncation is visible
instead of a silently flat line.

New harness tools/re-capture/phase_watch.py.
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Sylpheed RE agent
2026-08-25 15:01:24 +00:00
parent 4744047d3c
commit 3bae68d7f2
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51
docs/re/script-runtime-probe.md
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@@ -49,6 +49,44 @@ So the mirror is not a phase readout at all in phase 1, and **`+40` is**. It is
reachable from `/dev/shm` with no debugger, which is what made three runs of
polling the wrong address avoidable in hindsight.
## ✅ PINNED: state 1 = not yet deployed, state 2 = active — and arrivals are real
Watching `[ScriptMission+40]` and the three objective squadrons together across a
live run (`data/phase-watch-s02.txt`):
```
[ 1.8s] phase=1 finished=0 active= 24 ADN110:1 ADN111:1 ADN112:1
[ 58.2s] phase=1 finished=0 active= 27 ADN110:1 ADN111:1 ADN112:1
[ 90.7s] phase=1 finished=0 active= 30 ADN110:1 ADN111:1 ADN112:1
[ 120.8s] phase=1 finished=0 active= 29 ADN110:1 ADN111:1 ADN112:1
[ 143.4s] phase=1 finished=0 active= 32 ADN110:2 ADN111:2 ADN112:2 <-- arrive
[ 223.3s] phase=1 finished=0 active= 35 ADN110:2 ADN111:2 ADN112:2
```
**All three flip 1 → 2 at ~143 s**, and the count of records in state 2 climbs
**24 → 35** over the same window. So for these squadrons **state 1 is
"not yet deployed", not "gone"** — the built-in table's shorthand
*"1/3/4 = gone/dead/invalid"* is incomplete, and reading `state != 2` as
"destroyed" would have been wrong in exactly the way flagged last iteration.
Good that it was flagged rather than assumed.
### ✅ This also answers a much older question: arrivals DO happen
[mission-arrival-watch](mission-arrival-watch.md) and the wave work recorded
**"0 confirmed arrivals"** after many runs, measured by watching the *craft*
population. The script's own unit table shows arrivals plainly: eleven more
records enter state 2 within four minutes, three of them the phase-1 objective
squadrons at a distinct moment.
The old negative was not wrong about what it measured — it was measuring the
wrong structure. Craft counts conflate deployment with attrition; the per-unit
state field does not.
⚠️ **Both runs of this experiment froze** — at ~70 s and ~253 s — so the window
above is all that was observed, and **no phase advance was reached**. The freeze
witness caught both immediately, which is the only reason the truncation is
visible rather than silently producing a flat line.
## 🟡 The per-unit `state` encoding is not what the summary implies
For the three phase-1 objective squadrons, early in a fresh mission:
@@ -70,7 +108,12 @@ catching.
## What this makes possible
The decisive phase experiment is no longer blocked on attribution: sample
`[ScriptMission+40]` and the three squadrons' records together over a run, and a
phase advance becomes directly observable along with the state change that caused
it. That run has **not** been done yet.
The decisive phase experiment is no longer blocked on attribution — and it has
now partly run: the arrival of the three objective squadrons is directly
observed. What is still missing is a run that survives long enough (no freeze)
for them to be **destroyed**, which is when `[ScriptMission+40]` should step to
2. Two attempts froze first.
`tools/re-capture/phase_watch.py` is the harness: it samples the real counter and
the watched squadrons together, witnesses the freeze every 60 s, and prints only
on change.