re: state 1 = not yet deployed, and arrivals are directly observed

Watching [ScriptMission+40] and the three phase-1 objective squadrons together:
all of ADN110/111/112 flip state 1 -> 2 at ~143s, while records in state 2 climb
24 -> 35 over four minutes.

So state 1 means 'not yet deployed' for these, not 'gone'. The built-in table's
'1/3/4 = gone/dead/invalid' shorthand is incomplete, and reading state != 2 as
destroyed would have been wrong exactly as flagged last iteration.

This also answers a much older question: mission-arrival-watch.md and the wave
work recorded '0 confirmed arrivals' across many runs by watching the CRAFT
population. The script's own unit table shows arrivals plainly -- eleven records
enter state 2 within four minutes. The old negative measured the wrong
structure; craft counts conflate deployment with attrition, the per-unit state
field does not.

Both attempts froze (at ~70s and ~253s), so no phase advance was reached. The
freeze witness caught both immediately, which is why the truncation is visible
instead of a silently flat line.

New harness tools/re-capture/phase_watch.py.

tools/re-capture/phase_watch.py

@@ -0,0 +1,73 @@
+#!/usr/bin/env python3
+"""Watch the REAL phase counter and every squadron's state, together.
+
+Three earlier runs polled `[*(0x828F35F8)+236]` and saw 0 forever -- that mirror
+is only written once the ordinal exceeds 1 (script-runtime-probe.md). This reads
+`[ScriptMission+40]`, the counter itself, plus the per-unit records the phase
+conditions actually test, so a phase advance and the state change that caused it
+are visible in one sample.
+
+It also does two things the earlier probes had to learn the hard way:
+
+  * witnesses the freeze every 60 s (a frozen guest produces a perfectly
+    clean-looking negative -- see mission-freeze-resume-spin.md);
+  * re-locates the ScriptMission if the pointer stops validating, rather than
+    silently reporting stale numbers.
+
+Usage: phase_watch.py <Stage02.ssb> [secs] [every_s]
+"""
+import os
+import sys
+import time
+
+sys.path.insert(0, __file__.rsplit('/', 1)[0])
+import gmem
+import isl
+import squadron_state as S
+
+WATCH = ['ADN110', 'ADN111', 'ADN112']
+
+
+def main():
+    ssb = isl.load(sys.argv[1])
+    sym2 = isl.symbols(ssb, 2)
+    secs = float(sys.argv[2]) if len(sys.argv) > 2 else 900
+    every = float(sys.argv[3]) if len(sys.argv) > 3 else 5
+    path = gmem.mem_path()
+    size = os.path.getsize(path)
+    import frozen
+    t0 = time.time()
+    with open(path, 'rb', buffering=0) as f:
+        m, fb = S.find_mission(f, size, ssb)
+        if m is None:
+            print('ScriptMission not located'); return 1
+        print('file base 0x%08X  ScriptMission 0x%08X' % (fb, m), flush=True)
+        last = None
+        next_frozen = 0.0
+        while time.time() - t0 < secs:
+            now = time.time() - t0
+            if now >= next_frozen:
+                next_frozen = now + 60
+                try:
+                    dead, _ = frozen.frozen(5.0)
+                except Exception:
+                    dead = False
+                if dead:
+                    print('  [%6.1fs] *** GUEST FROZEN -- readings below are about '
+                          'a dead world ***' % now, flush=True)
+            r = S.read_states(f, m, sym2, WATCH)
+            key = (r['phase_ordinal'], r['finished'], r['active_records'],
+                   tuple((n, (v or {}).get('state')) for n, v in r['units'].items()))
+            if key != last:
+                print('  [%6.1fs] phase=%s finished=%s active=%3d  %s' % (
+                    now, r['phase_ordinal'], r['finished'], r['active_records'],
+                    '  '.join('%s:%s' % (n, (v or {}).get('state'))
+                              for n, v in r['units'].items())), flush=True)
+                last = key
+            time.sleep(every)
+    print('done', flush=True)
+    return 0
+
+
+if __name__ == '__main__':
+    sys.exit(main())