diff --git a/docs/re/mission-freeze-signin-dialog.md b/docs/re/mission-freeze-signin-dialog.md
index 97c92f4a..c5ebed1c 100644
--- a/docs/re/mission-freeze-signin-dialog.md
+++ b/docs/re/mission-freeze-signin-dialog.md
@@ -171,3 +171,35 @@ is not skippable by the obvious buttons.** Either it must be played out (long,
 under lavapipe), or the right skip input has not been found, or it is waiting on
 something the movie path never delivers. That is the next question, and it is now
 a question about *one* identified sequence rather than about a mysterious hang.
+
+## 🟡 The post-take-off state is measurably neither a menu nor flight
+
+`wait_flight.sh` carries the best discriminator in the corpus, and it is a
+whole-image statistic rather than a named pixel: the flight HUD paints green over
+the frame at **1.3–1.5 %** green fraction, against **< 0.1 %** on every menu.
+
+Measured on the post-take-off state:
+
+    menu green=0.0022 white=0.0001 mean=(1.6, 45.6, 50.1)
+
+**0.22 %** — an order of magnitude above a menu, an order of magnitude below
+flight, and a dark blue-green frame. `screen_id.py` files that under `menu`,
+which is simply the closest bucket it has; the state is neither.
+
+`wait_flight.sh` then tapped Ⓐ for **280 seconds** and never saw the HUD:
+`NO FLIGHT HUD within 280s (last: menu)`.
+
+Taken with the 12 `\dat\movie` accesses, the reading is consistent: this is the
+**cutscene**, it does not end on Ⓐ, and it does not reach the flight HUD within
+five minutes of trying.
+
+❔ What that leaves, in order of cheapness: (1) how the movie path signals
+completion — the corpus already decoded the movie handler for the intro video and
+found a software-decode deadline, so the same machinery may say what "done" looks
+like; (2) whether a mission can be started by a route that skips the launch
+cinematic; (3) whether the cutscene simply needs far longer than five minutes
+under `lavapipe`.
+
+**Status of the oracle overall: boot, menus and take-off are now reliable and
+reproducible; only the cutscene→mission step is unsolved.** That is a much
+smaller and better-defined gap than the freeze it replaced.