diff --git a/docs/re/ob-counts-marked-attackers.md b/docs/re/ob-counts-marked-attackers.md
index 18ea1a2b..d3bfd310 100644
--- a/docs/re/ob-counts-marked-attackers.md
+++ b/docs/re/ob-counts-marked-attackers.md
@@ -60,6 +60,52 @@ and the single decrement came from the single run that killed attackers.
    deployed) → 2 (active), so the prediction is `counter == 4 × (active e010
    squadrons) − (marked attackers killed)`.
 
+## ✅ The weak point, tested statically — and it holds for phase 1
+
+The caveat below said "four per squadron" was `16 / 4`, a **mean**, and that
+5/5/3/3 would make the step-of-four a coincidence. That is now measured, from the
+disc, with no emulator: `tools/re-capture/unitgroup.py S02` decodes
+`stage\UnitGroup_S02.tbl` (111 squadrons, 116 members, roster self-check
+111/111).
+
+Every `UN_e010_ADAN_Attacker_S` squadron in Stage 02:
+
+| squadron | n | | squadron | n |
+|---|---|---|---|---|
+| `ADN204` | **4** | | `ADN209` | 6 |
+| `ADN206` | **4** | | `ADS151` | **4** |
+| `ADT102` | **4** | | `ADS251` | 9 |
+| `ADN208` | 6 | | `ADT107` | **4** |
+| `ADT113` | **4** | | | |
+
+**9 groups, 45 members** — so the sizes are *not* uniform across the stage. But
+**six of the nine hold exactly 4**, and phase 1's share is independently recorded
+as **4 groups / 16 craft** — which is `4 × 4` exactly. So the phase-1 squadrons
+are the `n = 4` ones, and the step-of-four is a real per-squadron size rather
+than an artifact of averaging. 🟡 upgraded on that specific point.
+
+## ❌ A premise of this note was WRONG — ADN110/111/112 are TURRETS
+
+This note said the polled squadrons ADN110, ADN111 and ADN112 arrive at t=170 and
+implied they are the marked attackers. The roster says otherwise:
+
+```
+ADN110  unit=UN_e007_ADAN_Turret  n=9
+ADN111  unit=UN_e007_ADAN_Turret  n=9
+ADN112  unit=UN_e007_ADAN_Turret  n=9
+```
+
+All three are **turret** squadrons of **nine**. So the arrival-time evidence I
+quoted is about turrets, not about the objective craft, and it does **not**
+support this reading. It has to be withdrawn from the argument.
+
+❔ **And it leaves a genuine tension in the corpus**, worth stating rather than
+smoothing: [`mission-wave-arrivals.md`](mission-wave-arrivals.md) calls
+ADN110/111/112 "the three squadrons the phase-1 clear condition polls", while
+[`mission-objectives-text.md`](mission-objectives-text.md) has the phase-1
+objective as the *marked attackers*. Those cannot both be the clear condition
+unless the poll covers more than the objective. Unresolved here.
+
 ## ❌ What this is NOT
 
 * Not measured. No run was made for this note; every number in it is quoted from