re: pre-register F6's numbers for an out-of-sample boot
Every F5/F6 figure comes from captures taken for other purposes and re-analysed after the reader and three labels were corrected. None has been tested out of sample. Six predictions registered before the capture, five of them checkable by check_labels.py, which now takes --cap NAME=path. Prediction 6 is the one already got wrong once (0.057 against ptcopyright instead of 0.14 against the real plate), and is stated so a landing near 0.057 would show the correction itself was wrong. Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5 <noreply@anthropic.com> Claude-Session: https://claude.ai/code/session_01Jc4pciRArGHfxGGhEbwp5t
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docs/re/f6-out-of-sample-prereg.md
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# Pre-registration — F6's numbers on a boot that did not produce them
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Committed **before** the capture is taken. Every F5/F6 figure I hold comes from
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`f6`, `f6b`, `f5` or `f5-early` — captures taken for other purposes, several
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re-analysed after I fixed the draw reader and corrected three element labels.
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**None has been tested out of sample.** A number re-derived from the same log
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that suggested it is not independent evidence.
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One fresh no-input boot. Five predictions, all phase-free, all failing loudly if
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wrong:
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| # | quantity | predicted |
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|---|---|---|
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| 1 | `pteff03a` period / `pteff03` period | **1.200** ±5 % |
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| 2 | strip length ratio (`sy` 800/600) | **1.333** ±6 % |
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| 3 | pulse period / sweep loop | **0.100** ±5 % |
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| 4 | pulse amplitude vs `ptbtn00f.rat`'s declared 8-key curve | **≤3 alpha levels** mean error |
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| 5 | `ptcopyright` ramp / parent ramp | **0.733** ±8 % |
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And one that is not in the checker, stated here so it cannot be quietly dropped:
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| 6 | sweep enters **before** `ptbtn00f`, by | **0.138–0.141** of a sweep loop |
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⚠️ Prediction 6 is the one I got wrong once already — I measured it against
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`ptcopyright` and published 0.057. If the fresh run lands near 0.057 rather than
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0.14, the correction was wrong and the original figure was right.
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**A pass is the boring outcome.** The value is that five of the six are checks a
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wrong reader or a wrong label would fail, and the reader and two of the labels
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have been wrong inside the last day.
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