re: pre-register F6's numbers for an out-of-sample boot

Every F5/F6 figure comes from captures taken for other purposes and
re-analysed after the reader and three labels were corrected. None has been
tested out of sample. Six predictions registered before the capture, five of
them checkable by check_labels.py, which now takes --cap NAME=path.

Prediction 6 is the one already got wrong once (0.057 against ptcopyright
instead of 0.14 against the real plate), and is stated so a landing near
0.057 would show the correction itself was wrong.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
Claude-Session: https://claude.ai/code/session_01Jc4pciRArGHfxGGhEbwp5t

docs/re/f6-out-of-sample-prereg.md

@@ -0,0 +1,30 @@
+# Pre-registration — F6's numbers on a boot that did not produce them
+
+Committed **before** the capture is taken. Every F5/F6 figure I hold comes from
+`f6`, `f6b`, `f5` or `f5-early` — captures taken for other purposes, several
+re-analysed after I fixed the draw reader and corrected three element labels.
+**None has been tested out of sample.** A number re-derived from the same log
+that suggested it is not independent evidence.
+
+One fresh no-input boot. Five predictions, all phase-free, all failing loudly if
+wrong:
+
+| # | quantity | predicted |
+|---|---|---|
+| 1 | `pteff03a` period / `pteff03` period | **1.200** ±5 % |
+| 2 | strip length ratio (`sy` 800/600) | **1.333** ±6 % |
+| 3 | pulse period / sweep loop | **0.100** ±5 % |
+| 4 | pulse amplitude vs `ptbtn00f.rat`'s declared 8-key curve | **≤3 alpha levels** mean error |
+| 5 | `ptcopyright` ramp / parent ramp | **0.733** ±8 % |
+
+And one that is not in the checker, stated here so it cannot be quietly dropped:
+
+| 6 | sweep enters **before** `ptbtn00f`, by | **0.138–0.141** of a sweep loop |
+
+⚠️ Prediction 6 is the one I got wrong once already — I measured it against
+`ptcopyright` and published 0.057. If the fresh run lands near 0.057 rather than
+0.14, the correction was wrong and the original figure was right.
+
+**A pass is the boring outcome.** The value is that five of the six are checks a
+wrong reader or a wrong label would fail, and the reader and two of the labels
+have been wrong inside the last day.

tools/re-capture/check_labels.py

@@ -38,6 +38,14 @@ def declared_alpha(t):
 
 CAPS = {'f6': '/sylph-home/re/f6/xenia_re_ui_draws_01.log',
         'f6b': '/sylph-home/re/f6b/xenia_re_ui_draws_01.log'}
+# `--cap NAME=/path/to/log` replaces the set, for testing a fresh capture
+# out-of-sample against predictions registered before it was taken.
+_ov = [a for a in sys.argv if a.startswith('--cap')]
+if _ov:
+    i = sys.argv.index(_ov[0])
+    spec = sys.argv[i+1] if _ov[0] == '--cap' else _ov[0].split('=',1)[1]
+    k, v = spec.split('=', 1)
+    CAPS = {k: v}
 SWEEP_PAGE = '8154'
 PTCOPY_X = (-0.54, 0.54, 0.54, -0.54)