From bf5716373bd641d4985b7365103c9ef498a3a266 Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001 From: Sylpheed RE agent Date: Thu, 27 Aug 2026 01:08:21 +0000 Subject: [PATCH] re: the 'A' route kind names the objective squadrons and predicts the whole OB trajectory MIME-Version: 1.0 Content-Type: text/plain; charset=UTF-8 Content-Transfer-Encoding: 8bit Pure static, from Route_S02.tbl. Only THREE routes in the entire stage are kind 'A', all in phase 1 -- ADT102, ADT107, ADT113 -- and every one is a UN_e010_ADAN_Attacker_S squadron of n=4. The fourth phase-1 e010 squadron, ADS151, is kind 'F'. Their first-keyframe times are t=0, t=120 and t=210, so counting only the 'A' squadrons predicts the counter exactly: 004 at entry, 008 at t=120, 012 at t=210, and never above 012 in phase 1. That is what every run has shown -- starting value, step size and ceiling all fall out of the disc with nothing fitted. It also explains the two awkward observations: the fifteen-minute hold at 012 (all 'A' squadrons arrived, and those kills were turrets), and why 016 never appeared. The earlier prediction of a 016 cap is WITHDRAWN: ADS151 is an F route and is not counted, so the ceiling is 12. Kept 🟡: "A = marked attack objective" is inference from three routes in one stage, consistent with the mission dialogue and with A appearing only in early phases, but the letter's meaning is not proven and the kill test is still unrun. --- docs/re/ob-counts-marked-attackers.md | 52 +++++++++++++++++++++++++++ 1 file changed, 52 insertions(+) diff --git a/docs/re/ob-counts-marked-attackers.md b/docs/re/ob-counts-marked-attackers.md index a191fe89..774a2288 100644 --- a/docs/re/ob-counts-marked-attackers.md +++ b/docs/re/ob-counts-marked-attackers.md @@ -105,6 +105,58 @@ counter's step of four is a real per-squadron member count. ✅ on that point: t `16 / 4` mean is replaced by a measured per-group fact, and the coincidence the caveat feared (5/5/3/3) is ruled out. +## ✅✅ The `A` route kind names the objective squadrons — and it predicts the whole trajectory + +Route names carry a **kind** suffix (`Route__p`) whose meaning +[stage-mission-tables.md](structures/stage-mission-tables.md) lists as ❔. In +Stage 02 the distribution is lopsided: + +| phase | A | B | F | M | S | +|---|---|---|---|---|---| +| 1 | **3** | — | 16 | — | 18 | +| 2 | — | — | 15 | — | 22 | +| 3 | — | — | 13 | 11 | 22 | + +**Only three routes in the whole stage are kind `A`, all in phase 1** — +`ADT102`, `ADT107`, `ADT113`. Every one is a `UN_e010_ADAN_Attacker_S` squadron +of **n = 4**. (The fourth phase-1 `e010` squadron, `ADS151`, is kind `F`.) + +Their first-keyframe times, read from the same table: + +| squadron | kind | n | arrival | +|---|---|---|---| +| `ADT102` | **A** | 4 | **t = 0** | +| `ADT107` | **A** | 4 | **t = 120** | +| `ADT113` | **A** | 4 | **t = 210** | +| `ADS151` | F | 4 | t = 0 | + +Counting only the `A` squadrons gives a complete predicted trajectory: + +| mission time | arrived `A` craft | predicted counter | +|---|---|---| +| 0 | 4 | **004** | +| 120 | 8 | **008** | +| 210 | 12 | **012** | +| — | — | **never exceeds 012 in phase 1** | + +**That is exactly what every run has shown**: the counter is `004` at flight +entry, steps to `008` and then `012` within the first three to four minutes, and +has never been observed above `012`. All three features — the starting value, the +step size, and the ceiling — fall out of the disc with nothing fitted. + +It also explains the two results that looked like problems: + +* The **fifteen-minute hold at `012`** — after t = 210 every `A` squadron has + arrived, so the counter can only fall, and that run's kills were turrets. +* **`016` never appeared.** An earlier version of this note predicted a cap of 16 + from four squadrons; that prediction is **withdrawn**. `ADS151` is an `F` route + and is not counted, so the ceiling is 12. + +🟡 The reading of `A` as "the marked attack objective" is inference from a +three-route sample in one stage. It is strongly consistent with the mission +dialogue ("the attackers with the orange markers") and with `A` appearing only in +early phases corpus-wide, but the letter's meaning is not proven. + ## ❌ A premise of this note was WRONG — ADN110/111/112 are TURRETS This note said the polled squadrons ADN110, ADN111 and ADN112 arrive at t=170 and