diff --git a/docs/re/mission-wave-arrivals.md b/docs/re/mission-wave-arrivals.md
index bddbcb91..a1b8b295 100644
--- a/docs/re/mission-wave-arrivals.md
+++ b/docs/re/mission-wave-arrivals.md
@@ -282,6 +282,34 @@ statistic is exactly the kind of near-fit that has already misled this corpus
 once (the "109 of 111" squadron-name base in
 [structures/unit-group-table.md](structures/unit-group-table.md)).
 
+### ❌ WITHDRAWN (2026-08-26) — the p ≈ 0.02 does not survive the clustering
+
+The caution above was right and did not go far enough. Breaking the same
+cross-tab down **by stage** destroys the result:
+
+| stage | No, t=0 | No, t>0 | **Yes, t=0** | **Yes, t>0** |
+|---|---|---|---|---|
+| S04 | 42 | 5 | **10** | 0 |
+| S14 | 22 | 0 | **45** | 0 |
+| the other 9 stages with delayed routes | 836 | 63 | 0 | 0 |
+
+All 55 `DisableInterval = Yes` routes live in **two** stages, and **45 of them
+are in S14, which has no delayed route at all** — no squadron there is delayed
+whether it sets the flag or not, so those 45 cannot be evidence of anything.
+Only **one** stage, S04, contains both a `Yes` squadron and a delayed route.
+
+The pooled p ≈ 0.02 treated 1 023 routes as independent draws when they are
+really two clusters. The test that actually bears on the hypothesis is within
+S04, and there it is:
+
+    P(none of S04's 5 delayed routes belongs to one of its 10 Yes squadrons)
+      = C(47,5) / C(57,5) = 0.37
+
+Expected count under independence: **0.88**, observed **0**. That is entirely
+unremarkable. **The association is not supported by the data**, and the
+"`DisableInterval` finally has a plausible referent" reading above rests on the
+name alone, not on this table.
+
 Name matching for this table is sound: for Stage 02, 108 of 111 squadrons have
 routes and 113 route names resolve, so the cross-tab is not an artefact of
 failed joins.