Two further runs sampled the counts from the instant flight is detected. Both
give 116 roster records in the very first sample, flat thereafter, with 14 unit
definitions throughout. That is not a load race: a race would climb toward 116
from below, and it never does.
The leading explanation was arithmetic rather than behavioural -- census_probe
counts raw aligned vtable hits while wave5_probe counted distinct primary_va
values, which are different quantities if an offset can alias to a VA another
offset also claims. Measuring both in the same run refutes it: 116 raw hits and
116 distinct VAs in every sample.
So the outlier stands unexplained. Four runs now read 116/300, 116/300, 116/296
and one 42/170, with save drift, freezing, load race and VA aliasing each
individually refuted. Recorded rather than dropped, because a one-in-four
anomaly in the measurement apparatus is what later turns into a wrong
conclusion. Practical rule adopted: discard a run that disagrees with 116 rather
than interpreting it, and reproduce any finding in at least two runs.
Useful new fact: craft declines steadily and monotonically in both runs, 300 to
288 and 296 to 280, roughly 16-20 losses over 168 s under the hunting pilot.
Whether the player or NPC crossfire is responsible is not determined here, but
destruction is visible in this signal, which is half of what the kill-versus-
no-kill experiment needs.
Still not observed in any run: an arrival.
The link from the previous iteration gives a per-record live strength, and the
measurement is internally sound: 11 records at 2, 2 at 8 and 11 at 12 sums to
exactly the 170 craft counted, with 24 of 42 records deployed.
It does not reproduce. The previous run saw 116 roster records and 300 craft
with strengths 2/4/8/18; this one sees 42 and 170 with 2/8/12 -- same disc, same
save slot, same launch script, same stage.
Two explanations were checked and both fail. The save has not drifted:
game01/savedata is unmodified since 2026-08-23 and only the profile .gpd files
were written today. The guest was not frozen: the pilot's telemetry over the
same 190 s shows speed varying across dozens of values and a live engagement
with an e007 Turret at 259-680 m.
So the discrepancy is real and unexplained, and until it is understood
per-record counts cannot be used as a time series. Recorded as the blocker
rather than worked around. The same within-run-only discipline already noted for
the global craft count now applies one level down.
Also recorded: zero arrivals and zero losses across 190 s. That is weak evidence
against clock-driven arrivals at t = 90/120/170 seconds, since a 0 -> n
transition should have appeared and none did. It is no test of the event-gated
model at all, because nothing was killed -- fc=0, no record lost strength, and
the player's hull never moved off 1500. The pilot closes to 259 m and misses, so
the gap is accuracy rather than engagement.
