The Decoder concluded width does not predict settle-pose quality but my
transient-peak/late-arrival predictor does, on the grounds that the splashes are
narrower than the menu (window 8) and win by 75x.
The predictor holds 5 of 5 on my capture-backed screens: mid-ramp count is 2 on
exactly the two screens where settle loses and 0 on the three where it wins.
But their splash window disagrees with my export by 20x. Recomputed from raw
top-level keyframe times, publisher_logo is [0,15,30,45,235,239,251,255] whose
widest gap is 45->235 = 190; developer_logos gives 145. We agree exactly on title
(76) and main_menu (12), so the divergence is specific to the splashes.
Consequence: the splashes are the WIDEST of my five, not the narrowest, so width
and mid-ramp predict identically and are perfectly confounded across my screens.
The case that separated them evaporates -- my predictor is not established as
better than width by this evidence, which is a different claim from being wrong.
My numbers also make their own census coherent: at window 8 the splashes would sit
in the 40.9% bucket while showing zero mid-ramp elements, a paradox; at 190/145
they sit in the wide bucket where zero is what the census predicts.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>
Claude-Session: https://claude.ai/code/session_01N7FiFFFwbvG2uxdcEh8HyF
cb326175ee