The pooled cross-tab gave p ~= 0.02 for 'no Yes-flagged squadron has a delayed
route', recorded at a cautious yellow. Breaking it down by stage removes it:
all 55 Yes routes live in 2 stages, and 45 are in S14, which has NO delayed
route at all -- those 45 cannot be evidence either way. Only S04 contains both
a Yes squadron and a delayed route.
Within S04 the exact test is P = C(47,5)/C(57,5) = 0.37, expected 0.88 observed
0. Unremarkable. The pooled p treated 1023 routes as independent draws when they
are two clusters.
The doc had already flagged this as the kind of near-fit that misled the corpus
before; that caution was right and did not go far enough.
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