diff --git a/docs/re/BACKLOG.md b/docs/re/BACKLOG.md
index 39bf7fc..e1bd15a 100644
--- a/docs/re/BACKLOG.md
+++ b/docs/re/BACKLOG.md
@@ -347,7 +347,14 @@ search cannot find a *schedule*.
   Fan-in: only **41 of 116** records have craft (2×24, 4×1, 8×4, 18×12 = 300).
   ⇒ **an arrival is craft appearing for a record that had none; a kill is that
   count decreasing — both attributable to a named squadron**, hence to a route.
-  🔴 **BLOCKER (2026-08-24): the per-record measurement does not reproduce.**
+  ✅ **Blocker downgraded (2026-08-24): the baseline DOES reproduce** — two more
+  runs give 116 roster records flat from t=0 (not a load race) with craft
+  declining 300→288 and 296→280, so **losses are observable**. Raw hits ==
+  distinct VAs (116 == 116), so the VA-aliasing explanation is 🔴 refuted too.
+  🟡 The single 42/170 run stays unexplained; rule adopted: **discard a run that
+  disagrees with 116 rather than interpreting it, and reproduce any finding in
+  ≥2 runs.** ❔ No arrival seen in any run yet.
+  Earlier framing:
   [`mission-per-record-strength.md`](mission-per-record-strength.md) — one run
   gives 116 records/300 craft, the next 42/170, same disc, save and script. Save
   drift is REFUTED (savedata untouched since 2026-08-23) and the guest was not
diff --git a/docs/re/mission-per-record-strength.md b/docs/re/mission-per-record-strength.md
index 2a351f2..50f5d76 100644
--- a/docs/re/mission-per-record-strength.md
+++ b/docs/re/mission-per-record-strength.md
@@ -72,3 +72,62 @@ Every sample was identical: 170 craft, 24 deployed, no `0 → n`, no `n → n−
 2. **Get a confirmed kill.** Without one, the kill-versus-no-kill experiment
    cannot run. The pilot reaches firing range and does not destroy anything, so
    the gap is accuracy, not engagement.
+
+---
+
+# The 42-vs-116 outlier does not reproduce (2026-08-24)
+
+Status: ✅ the baseline is stable and it is **not** a load race; 🔴 the VA-aliasing
+explanation is refuted; 🟡 the outlier itself stays unexplained; ✅ losses are
+observable.
+
+`tools/re-capture/census_probe.py` samples the raw counts every 12–20 s from the
+instant flight is detected, and also reports what the scan is looking at.
+
+## ✅ Two further runs, both stable at 116
+
+```
+   t   roster   distVA   craft   defs   extents      MB
+   0      116      116     300     14       272    342.2
+  60      116      116     294     14       262    342.3
+ 120      116      116     292     14       258    342.4
+ 168      116      116     288     14       258    342.4
+```
+
+and a second run, 116 throughout, craft 296 → 280.
+
+**Not a load race.** The roster count is 116 in the very first sample and never
+moves — it does not climb toward 116 from below, which is what a race would look
+like. Definitions are 14 throughout, matching Stage 02's 14 unit types.
+
+## 🔴 Refuted: VA aliasing was not the cause
+
+The leading hypothesis was arithmetic rather than behavioural: `census_probe`
+counts **raw aligned vtable hits**, while `wave5_probe` counted **distinct
+`primary_va` values**, and if one offset can alias to a VA another offset also
+claims, those are simply different numbers. Measuring both in the same run
+settles it: **116 raw hits, 116 distinct VAs, in every sample**. They are the
+same number here, so the difference in what was counted cannot explain 42.
+
+## 🟡 The outlier stands, unexplained
+
+Four runs now: 116/300, 116/300, 116/296 — and one 42/170. Same disc, save,
+script and stage; save drift, freezing, load race and VA aliasing are all
+individually refuted. I do not know what produced it.
+
+What that changes in practice: the baseline is trustworthy enough to build on,
+but **any single run that disagrees with 116 should be discarded rather than
+interpreted**, and a result must be reproduced in at least two runs before it is
+written down as a finding. Recorded rather than quietly dropped, because a
+one-in-four anomaly in the measurement apparatus is exactly the kind of thing
+that later turns into a wrong conclusion.
+
+## ✅ Losses are observable; arrivals still are not
+
+Craft declines steadily and monotonically in both runs — 300 → 288 and
+296 → 280, roughly 16–20 losses over 168 s under the hunting pilot. Whether the
+player or the NPC crossfire is responsible is not determined here; what matters
+is that **destruction is visible in this signal**.
+
+No arrival has yet been seen in any run. The per-record `0 → n` watch is still
+the right instrument, and it can now be run against a known-good baseline.
diff --git a/tools/re-capture/census_probe.py b/tools/re-capture/census_probe.py
new file mode 100755
index 0000000..29e48fe
--- /dev/null
+++ b/tools/re-capture/census_probe.py
@@ -0,0 +1,83 @@
+#!/usr/bin/env python3
+"""Why does the roster-record count differ between runs (116 vs 42)?
+
+Samples the counts repeatedly WITHIN one run, from the instant flight is
+detected, and also reports what the scan is actually looking at:
+
+  * roster records  -- vtable 0x820AF030 hits
+  * craft           -- unit-definition-pointer sites in the entity heap
+  * definitions     -- vtable 0x820AF844 hits
+  * extents/bytes   -- what gmem.extents() enumerates, to test whether the scan
+                       region itself differs between runs
+
+A count that climbs = a load race. A count flat at a run-specific value = not a
+race, and the cause is in the guest, not the probe.
+"""
+import os, sys, time, struct, collections
+sys.path.insert(0, __file__.rsplit('/', 1)[0])
+import gmem, gworld, entities2
+
+ROSTER_VT = struct.pack('>I', 0x820AF030)
+DEF_VT    = struct.pack('>I', 0x820AF844)
+DELTA = 0x130
+
+def count_vt(fd, size, vt, want_vas=False):
+    """Raw aligned hits, and optionally how many DISTINCT primary VAs they map
+    to. wave5 printed the latter and census the former; if an offset can alias to
+    a VA another offset also claims, the two are different numbers and that alone
+    would explain 42 vs 116."""
+    n = 0; vas = set()
+    for a, b in gmem.extents(fd, size):
+        pos = a
+        while pos < b:
+            m = min(1 << 24, b - pos)
+            blob = os.pread(fd, m, pos)
+            i = blob.find(vt)
+            while i != -1:
+                if (pos + i) % 4 == 0:
+                    n += 1
+                    if want_vas:
+                        v = gmem.primary_va(pos + i)
+                        if v is not None: vas.add(v)
+                i = blob.find(vt, i + 1)
+            pos += m
+    return (n, len(vas)) if want_vas else n
+
+def extent_stats(fd, size):
+    n = tot = 0
+    for a, b in gmem.extents(fd, size):
+        n += 1; tot += b - a
+    return n, tot
+
+def craft_count(fd, defs):
+    lo, hi = gmem.va_to_off(entities2.ENT_VA_LO), gmem.va_to_off(entities2.ENT_VA_HI)
+    n, pos = 0, lo
+    while pos < hi:
+        m = min(1 << 24, hi - pos)
+        blob = os.pread(fd, m, pos)
+        for k in range(0, len(blob) - 3, 4):
+            if blob[k:k+4] in defs: n += 1
+        pos += m
+    return n
+
+def main():
+    secs  = int(sys.argv[1]) if len(sys.argv) > 1 else 180
+    every = int(sys.argv[2]) if len(sys.argv) > 2 else 12
+    w = gworld.World(); fd = w.fd; size = w.size
+    t0 = time.time()
+    print('%5s %8s %8s %7s %6s %8s %10s' %
+          ('t', 'roster', 'distVA', 'craft', 'defs', 'extents', 'MB'))
+    while time.time() - t0 < secs:
+        el = round(time.time() - t0)
+        defs = entities2.definitions(w)
+        r, rvas = count_vt(fd, size, ROSTER_VT, want_vas=True)
+        d = count_vt(fd, size, DEF_VT)
+        c = craft_count(fd, defs) if defs else 0
+        en, eb = extent_stats(fd, size)
+        print('%5d %8d %8d %7d %6d %8d %10.1f'
+              % (el, r, rvas, c, d, en, eb / 2**20), flush=True)
+        time.sleep(max(0, every - (time.time() - t0 - el)))
+    return 0
+
+if __name__ == '__main__':
+    sys.exit(main())
diff --git a/tools/re-capture/census_session.sh b/tools/re-capture/census_session.sh
new file mode 100755
index 0000000..e46d01b
--- /dev/null
+++ b/tools/re-capture/census_session.sh
@@ -0,0 +1,16 @@
+#!/usr/bin/env bash
+set -u
+export HOME=/sylph-home/re SDL_AUDIODRIVER=dummy DISPLAY=:98
+export PYTHONPATH=/sylph-home/.local/lib/python3.12/site-packages
+SD="$(cd "$(dirname "$0")" && pwd)"
+SECS="${1:-180}"; EVERY="${2:-10}"; HUNT="${3:-1}"
+CFG=/tmp/nav-live.json
+"$SD/launch_mission.sh" fly || { echo "BOOT FAILED"; exit 1; }
+if python3 "$SD/entities2.py" self 0x130 "$CFG" >/dev/null 2>&1; then
+  SYLPH_HUNT="$HUNT" SYLPH_KILL_TURRETS=1 nohup python3 "$SD/pilot.py" "$CFG" "$SECS" \
+      </dev/null >/tmp/live-pilot.log 2>&1 &
+  PILOT=$!; echo "--- pilot (SYLPH_HUNT=$HUNT)"
+else PILOT=""; echo "--- BIND FAILED, no pilot"; fi
+python3 "$SD/census_probe.py"  ; rc=$?
+[ -n "$PILOT" ] && kill "$PILOT" 2>/dev/null
+echo "LIVENESS DONE rc=$rc"