diff --git a/docs/re/BACKLOG.md b/docs/re/BACKLOG.md
index e1bd15a..c3d696c 100644
--- a/docs/re/BACKLOG.md
+++ b/docs/re/BACKLOG.md
@@ -353,7 +353,17 @@ search cannot find a *schedule*.
   distinct VAs (116 == 116), so the VA-aliasing explanation is 🔴 refuted too.
   🟡 The single 42/170 run stays unexplained; rule adopted: **discard a run that
   disagrees with 116 rather than interpreting it, and reproduce any finding in
-  ≥2 runs.** ❔ No arrival seen in any run yet.
+  ≥2 runs.**
+* ✅🔴 **Six runs, no arrival — plus an accidental control**
+  ([`mission-arrival-watch.md`](mission-arrival-watch.md), 2026-08-24). Deployment
+  reproduces byte-for-byte (116 records, 300 craft, 41 deployed, strengths
+  2×24/4×1/8×4/18×12). ✅ **Losses require the player**: an unpiloted run held at
+  exactly 300 craft for 240 s / 22 samples, vs 16–20 losses in each piloted run —
+  so NPC crossfire destroys nothing on its own. 🔴 **Zero `0→n` arrivals in either
+  condition**, ~15 min cumulative. ❔ **Prime suspect: the phase clock may not be
+  advancing at all** — never checked. **Next: find the mission timer** (HUD digits
+  or a fixed-rate counter); if it is stopped, every arrival result so far is
+  measuring a stopped clock.
   Earlier framing:
   [`mission-per-record-strength.md`](mission-per-record-strength.md) — one run
   gives 116 records/300 craft, the next 42/170, same disc, save and script. Save
diff --git a/docs/re/mission-arrival-watch.md b/docs/re/mission-arrival-watch.md
new file mode 100644
index 0000000..9883248
--- /dev/null
+++ b/docs/re/mission-arrival-watch.md
@@ -0,0 +1,70 @@
+# Six runs, no arrival — and an accidental control
+
+Status: ✅ the deployment structure reproduces exactly; ✅ losses require the
+player; 🔴 **no arrival has ever been observed**, across six runs; ❔ whether
+mission/phase time is advancing at all is now the prime suspect and is untested.
+
+## ✅ The deployment structure reproduces byte-for-byte
+
+`tools/re-capture/wave6_probe.py` refuses to interpret a run whose roster count
+is not the reproduced baseline of 116 (the discard rule from
+[mission-per-record-strength.md](mission-per-record-strength.md)). This run
+passed, and its first sample is *identical* to the earlier link run:
+
+```
+roster records: 116     craft=300     deployed=41/116
+strengths [(2, 24), (4, 1), (8, 4), (18, 12)]
+```
+
+Same 41 deployed of 116, same discrete strength histogram, same total. The
+deployment is deterministic at mission start.
+
+## ✅ Losses require the player — an accidental control run
+
+The pilot failed to bind this run (`BIND FAILED, no pilot`), so the craft sat
+unattended. That is the control condition the kill-versus-no-kill experiment
+needed, and it arrived by accident:
+
+| condition | duration | losses |
+|---|---|---|
+| hunting pilot | 168 s | 300 → 288 |
+| hunting pilot | 168 s | 296 → 280 |
+| **no pilot** | **240 s** | **300 → 300, zero** |
+
+With nobody flying, **not one craft was destroyed in four minutes** — the count
+held at exactly 300 for all 22 samples. So the 16–20 losses in the piloted runs
+are attributable to the player being in the fight, and **NPC crossfire does not
+by itself destroy anything**. That was an open question two iterations ago and
+it is now answered.
+
+## 🔴 No arrival, in either condition, in six runs
+
+Zero `0 → n` transitions. Not with a hunting pilot, not without one, across
+roughly fifteen minutes of cumulative Stage 02 flight and windows up to 240 s.
+The 75 records that hold no craft at mission start still hold none at the end.
+
+Set against `Route_S02.tbl`, which schedules phase-1 arrivals at
+t = 90, 120, 170, 210, 240 in groups of 3, 3, 3, 2, 1, this is now a strong
+negative rather than a null result. Three readings survive:
+
+1. **The timetable's `t` is not seconds.** At 30 Hz the whole phase-1 schedule
+   completes inside 8 s — before any probe's first sample — and everything that
+   was going to arrive already had.
+2. **Arrivals are event-gated** and no run supplied the trigger. The control run
+   supplied nothing at all; the piloted runs killed 16–20 craft, which may be
+   below a threshold or of the wrong squadrons.
+3. **The mission is not advancing its phase clock**, so no schedule ever fires.
+
+## ❔ The prime suspect is now (3), and it is untested
+
+Nothing in six runs has confirmed that mission or phase time is advancing at
+all. The craft count is frozen without a pilot; `REMAINING OB` has never read as
+a counter; no clock has been located. Every "no arrival" observation is
+consistent with a mission whose scheduler is simply not running under these
+conditions — and that possibility has never been checked, which makes it the
+cheapest thing to eliminate next.
+
+**Next: find the mission timer.** The HUD shows elapsed mission time, so a
+digit-recognition read of the clock region, or a memory scan for a counter that
+advances at a fixed rate, would settle whether phase time moves. If it does not,
+every arrival conclusion so far is measuring a stopped clock.
diff --git a/tools/re-capture/wave6_probe.py b/tools/re-capture/wave6_probe.py
new file mode 100755
index 0000000..92b6b16
--- /dev/null
+++ b/tools/re-capture/wave6_probe.py
@@ -0,0 +1,104 @@
+#!/usr/bin/env python3
+"""Per-record arrival/loss watch against the verified 116/300 baseline.
+
+Supersedes wave5_probe.py, which reported 42 records in a run nobody could
+reproduce. Changes:
+  * refuses to interpret a run whose roster count is not the reproduced
+    baseline (mission-per-record-strength.md: discard, do not interpret);
+  * keys records by file offset rather than by primary VA;
+  * samples faster and for longer, since losses appear at ~1 per 10 s and no
+    arrival has been seen in five runs.
+
+An arrival is a record going 0 -> n; a loss is n -> n-1.
+"""
+import os, sys, time, struct, collections, importlib.util
+SD = __file__.rsplit('/', 1)[0]
+sys.path.insert(0, SD)
+import gmem, gworld, entities2
+_w3 = importlib.util.spec_from_file_location('w3', SD + '/wave3_probe.py')
+wave3 = importlib.util.module_from_spec(_w3); _w3.loader.exec_module(wave3)
+
+ROSTER_VT = struct.pack('>I', 0x820AF030)
+DELTA, WIN, LINK = 0x130, 0x400, 0x08
+BASELINE = 116
+
+def scan_vt(fd, size, vt):
+    out = []
+    for a, b in gmem.extents(fd, size):
+        pos = a
+        while pos < b:
+            m = min(1 << 24, b - pos)
+            blob = os.pread(fd, m, pos)
+            i = blob.find(vt)
+            while i != -1:
+                if (pos + i) % 4 == 0: out.append(pos + i)
+                i = blob.find(vt, i + 1)
+            pos += m
+    return sorted(out)
+
+def sample(fd, defs, want):
+    lo, hi = gmem.va_to_off(entities2.ENT_VA_LO), gmem.va_to_off(entities2.ENT_VA_HI)
+    per = collections.Counter(); tot = 0; pos = lo
+    while pos < hi:
+        m = min(1 << 24, hi - pos)
+        blob = os.pread(fd, m, pos)
+        for k in range(0, len(blob) - 3, 4):
+            if blob[k:k+4] not in defs: continue
+            tot += 1
+            head = os.pread(fd, WIN, pos + k - DELTA)
+            for j in range(0, len(head) - 3, 4):
+                (p,) = struct.unpack_from('>I', head, j)
+                if p in want:
+                    per[want[p]] += 1; break
+        pos += m
+    return per, tot
+
+def main():
+    secs  = int(sys.argv[1]) if len(sys.argv) > 1 else 240
+    every = int(sys.argv[2]) if len(sys.argv) > 2 else 10
+    w = gworld.World(); fd = w.fd
+    defs = entities2.definitions(w)
+    if not defs: print('NOT IN A MISSION'); return 2
+    roster = scan_vt(fd, w.size, ROSTER_VT)
+    print('roster records: %d (baseline %d)' % (len(roster), BASELINE))
+    if len(roster) != BASELINE:
+        print('DISCARD: roster count is not the reproduced baseline. '
+              'Per mission-per-record-strength.md this run is not interpreted.')
+        return 3
+    f = os.fdopen(os.dup(fd), 'rb')
+    label, want = {}, {}
+    for o in roster:
+        va = gmem.primary_va(o)
+        if va is None: continue
+        label[o] = wave3.resolve_id(f, w.size, o)[0] or '?'
+        want[va + LINK] = o
+    log = open('/tmp/wave6.tsv', 'w'); log.write('t\tkind\toff\tunit\tfrom\tto\n')
+    prev = None; t0 = time.time(); arr_n = loss_n = 0
+    while time.time() - t0 < secs:
+        per, tot = sample(fd, defs, want)
+        el = round(time.time() - t0)
+        if prev is None:
+            print('t=%4ds craft=%d deployed=%d/%d strengths %s'
+                  % (el, tot, len(per), len(roster),
+                     sorted(collections.Counter(per.values()).items())), flush=True)
+        else:
+            arr = [(o, per[o]) for o in per if prev.get(o, 0) == 0 < per[o]]
+            los = [(o, prev[o], per.get(o, 0)) for o in prev if per.get(o, 0) < prev[o]]
+            arr_n += len(arr); loss_n += len(los)
+            print('t=%4ds craft=%d deployed=%d  ARRIVALS=%d losses=%d  (cum %d/%d)'
+                  % (el, tot, len(per), len(arr), len(los), arr_n, loss_n), flush=True)
+            for o, c in arr:
+                print('   ARRIVAL %-30s 0 -> %d' % (label.get(o, '?'), c), flush=True)
+                log.write('%d\tarrival\t%#x\t%s\t0\t%d\n' % (el, o, label.get(o, '?'), c))
+            for o, a, b in los:
+                print('   loss    %-30s %d -> %d' % (label.get(o, '?'), a, b), flush=True)
+                log.write('%d\tloss\t%#x\t%s\t%d\t%d\n' % (el, o, label.get(o, '?'), a, b))
+            log.flush()
+        prev = per
+        time.sleep(max(0, every - (time.time() - t0 - el)))
+    log.close()
+    print('\nTOTAL arrivals=%d losses=%d over %ds' % (arr_n, loss_n, secs))
+    return 0
+
+if __name__ == '__main__':
+    sys.exit(main())
diff --git a/tools/re-capture/wave6_session.sh b/tools/re-capture/wave6_session.sh
new file mode 100755
index 0000000..830204a
--- /dev/null
+++ b/tools/re-capture/wave6_session.sh
@@ -0,0 +1,16 @@
+#!/usr/bin/env bash
+set -u
+export HOME=/sylph-home/re SDL_AUDIODRIVER=dummy DISPLAY=:98
+export PYTHONPATH=/sylph-home/.local/lib/python3.12/site-packages
+SD="$(cd "$(dirname "$0")" && pwd)"
+SECS="${1:-180}"; EVERY="${2:-10}"; HUNT="${3:-1}"
+CFG=/tmp/nav-live.json
+"$SD/launch_mission.sh" fly || { echo "BOOT FAILED"; exit 1; }
+if python3 "$SD/entities2.py" self 0x130 "$CFG" >/dev/null 2>&1; then
+  SYLPH_HUNT="$HUNT" SYLPH_KILL_TURRETS=1 nohup python3 "$SD/pilot.py" "$CFG" "$SECS" \
+      </dev/null >/tmp/live-pilot.log 2>&1 &
+  PILOT=$!; echo "--- pilot (SYLPH_HUNT=$HUNT)"
+else PILOT=""; echo "--- BIND FAILED, no pilot"; fi
+python3 "$SD/wave6_probe.py"  ; rc=$?
+[ -n "$PILOT" ] && kill "$PILOT" 2>/dev/null
+echo "LIVENESS DONE rc=$rc"