re: making turrets targets does not save the escort — the effect is inside the noise

The Stage-02 outcome write-up ended by naming "turrets near the asset must
become targets" as the fix worth ~50% of the escort damage. That was an
inference from a co-presence attribution, not a measurement. Run it and it
does not hold.

Also corrects the run labelling: pilot.py gained the SYLPH_KILL_TURRETS gate
two minutes before mission02 started, so mission02 was already a treatment run,
not a second baseline. Only mission01 (0 of 3968 pilot frames targeting a
turret) is the baseline.

At a common t=428s: baseline 46.9% escort hull, treatment 44.5% and 53.0%. The
two runs of the same arm differ by more than either differs from the baseline,
and the escort still reaches zero at t~590-670s in all three. So the
transferable finding is the power limit: one 430s flight cannot resolve an
effect below ~9 percentage points, and every single-run pilot conclusion,
including this one's, is inside it.

What does reproduce: the assault is scripted (onset 166/167/166s), and the
e007/e010 damage split is 50/50 in all three arms including the one that never
fires at a turret -- so that attribution measures the wave script, not us.

Also records that the viewer's include_external hypothesis in BACKLOG is dead
(it defaults true and is threaded through unchanged).
This commit is contained in:
2026-08-11 05:29:52 +00:00
parent f4d59c5783
commit 5c3e3dfe47
6 changed files with 297 additions and 4 deletions

View File

@@ -0,0 +1,161 @@
run,turret_rule,t_s,acropolis_hull,e007_alive,e007_killed_cum
mission01,off,0,25000.0,0,0
mission01,off,10,25000.0,5,0
mission01,off,20,25000.0,6,0
mission01,off,30,25000.0,6,0
mission01,off,40,25000.0,6,0
mission01,off,50,25000.0,8,0
mission01,off,60,25000.0,11,0
mission01,off,70,25000.0,11,3
mission01,off,80,25000.0,8,3
mission01,off,90,25000.0,8,3
mission01,off,100,25000.0,10,3
mission01,off,110,25000.0,14,3
mission01,off,120,25000.0,16,3
mission01,off,130,25000.0,17,3
mission01,off,140,25000.0,20,3
mission01,off,150,25000.0,23,3
mission01,off,160,25000.0,26,4
mission01,off,170,24509.5,33,4
mission01,off,180,24509.5,37,4
mission01,off,190,24419.5,38,5
mission01,off,200,24212.5,41,5
mission01,off,210,23447.5,40,5
mission01,off,220,23447.5,40,5
mission01,off,220,23447.5,40,5
mission01,off,230,23447.5,41,5
mission01,off,230,23447.5,41,5
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mission01,off,240,22867.0,43,5
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mission01,off,260,22334.5,44,6
mission01,off,260,22177.9,44,6
mission01,off,270,21101.2,46,6
mission01,off,270,21101.2,45,6
mission01,off,280,20292.6,46,6
mission01,off,280,20279.1,46,6
mission01,off,290,19598.5,58,6
mission01,off,290,19598.5,58,6
mission01,off,300,18725.2,58,6
mission01,off,300,18658.5,47,6
mission01,off,310,18231.9,47,6
mission01,off,310,18231.9,47,6
mission01,off,320,17425.2,47,6
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mission01,off,340,16044.8,49,7
mission01,off,350,15461.5,50,7
mission01,off,360,14956.3,51,7
mission01,off,370,14425.5,51,8
mission01,off,380,13910.5,51,8
mission01,off,390,13418.9,49,11
mission01,off,400,13218.9,45,12
mission01,off,410,12517.9,44,12
mission01,off,420,12161.3,44,13
mission01,off,430,11601.3,44,13
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mission02,on,10,25000.0,5,0
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mission02,on,50,25000.0,7,1
mission02,on,60,25000.0,10,1
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mission02,on,80,25000.0,7,4
mission02,on,90,25000.0,7,4
mission02,on,100,25000.0,7,4
mission02,on,110,25000.0,9,4
mission02,on,120,25000.0,14,4
mission02,on,130,25000.0,16,4
mission02,on,140,25000.0,19,4
mission02,on,150,25000.0,19,4
mission02,on,160,25000.0,23,5
mission02,on,170,24730.0,28,5
mission02,on,180,24730.0,32,5
mission02,on,190,24730.0,36,5
mission02,on,200,24640.0,43,6
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mission02,on,220,24055.0,47,6
mission02,on,220,24055.0,47,6
mission02,on,230,24055.0,49,6
mission02,on,230,24055.0,49,6
mission02,on,240,23474.5,52,6
mission02,on,240,23474.5,52,6
mission02,on,250,23474.5,53,6
mission02,on,250,23474.5,53,6
mission02,on,260,23474.5,54,6
mission02,on,260,23474.5,54,6
mission02,on,270,22697.0,54,6
mission02,on,270,22697.0,54,6
mission02,on,280,22091.2,56,6
mission02,on,280,22091.2,55,7
mission02,on,290,21577.9,55,7
mission02,on,290,21555.4,55,7
mission02,on,300,20799.1,56,7
mission02,on,310,19781.1,55,7
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mission02,on,330,18592.5,56,8
mission02,on,340,17432.5,57,8
mission02,on,350,16932.6,59,8
mission02,on,360,16171.6,58,9
mission02,on,370,15017.6,58,11
mission02,on,380,14217.2,59,11
mission02,on,390,13322.2,59,12
mission02,on,400,12808.9,58,13
mission02,on,410,12090.6,61,16
mission02,on,420,11440.6,66,19
mission02,on,430,11127.3,55,19
mission03,on,0,25000.0,0,0
mission03,on,10,25000.0,3,0
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mission03,on,40,25000.0,6,0
mission03,on,50,25000.0,8,0
mission03,on,60,25000.0,9,0
mission03,on,70,25000.0,16,0
mission03,on,80,25000.0,10,0
mission03,on,90,25000.0,11,0
mission03,on,100,25000.0,10,2
mission03,on,110,25000.0,15,2
mission03,on,120,25000.0,12,2
mission03,on,130,25000.0,10,4
mission03,on,140,25000.0,11,6
mission03,on,150,25000.0,14,6
mission03,on,160,25000.0,17,7
mission03,on,170,24685.0,24,7
mission03,on,180,24640.0,23,7
mission03,on,190,24640.0,27,7
mission03,on,200,24460.0,26,8
mission03,on,210,24100.0,28,8
mission03,on,220,24100.0,29,9
mission03,on,230,24100.0,28,11
mission03,on,230,24100.0,28,11
mission03,on,240,23810.0,35,11
mission03,on,240,23810.0,36,11
mission03,on,250,23630.0,36,12
mission03,on,250,23630.0,36,12
mission03,on,260,23630.0,38,13
mission03,on,260,23630.0,38,13
mission03,on,270,22998.0,39,13
mission03,on,270,22908.0,39,13
mission03,on,280,22197.5,40,13
mission03,on,280,22188.5,40,13
mission03,on,290,21602.4,38,13
mission03,on,290,21602.4,38,13
mission03,on,300,21042.4,39,13
mission03,on,300,20975.8,39,13
mission03,on,310,20529.1,41,15
mission03,on,310,20529.1,41,15
mission03,on,320,19812.5,38,17
mission03,on,320,19767.5,38,17
mission03,on,330,19434.2,39,18
mission03,on,340,18785.9,37,19
mission03,on,350,18339.2,37,19
mission03,on,360,17528.1,38,19
mission03,on,370,16901.5,37,19
mission03,on,380,16260.7,35,19
mission03,on,390,15708.2,37,19
mission03,on,400,15346.2,37,19
mission03,on,410,14412.1,36,20
mission03,on,420,13951.9,37,22
mission03,on,430,13211.9,35,23
1 run turret_rule t_s acropolis_hull e007_alive e007_killed_cum
2 mission01 off 0 25000.0 0 0
3 mission01 off 10 25000.0 5 0
4 mission01 off 20 25000.0 6 0
5 mission01 off 30 25000.0 6 0
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16 mission01 off 140 25000.0 20 3
17 mission01 off 150 25000.0 23 3
18 mission01 off 160 25000.0 26 4
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20 mission01 off 180 24509.5 37 4
21 mission01 off 190 24419.5 38 5
22 mission01 off 200 24212.5 41 5
23 mission01 off 210 23447.5 40 5
24 mission01 off 220 23447.5 40 5
25 mission01 off 220 23447.5 40 5
26 mission01 off 230 23447.5 41 5
27 mission01 off 230 23447.5 41 5
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29 mission01 off 240 22867.0 43 5
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31 mission01 off 250 22647.0 42 6
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33 mission01 off 260 22177.9 44 6
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46 mission01 off 340 16044.8 49 7
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49 mission01 off 370 14425.5 51 8
50 mission01 off 380 13910.5 51 8
51 mission01 off 390 13418.9 49 11
52 mission01 off 400 13218.9 45 12
53 mission01 off 410 12517.9 44 12
54 mission01 off 420 12161.3 44 13
55 mission01 off 430 11601.3 44 13
56 mission02 on 0 25000.0 0 0
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58 mission02 on 20 25000.0 6 0
59 mission02 on 30 25000.0 5 0
60 mission02 on 40 25000.0 5 1
61 mission02 on 50 25000.0 7 1
62 mission02 on 60 25000.0 10 1
63 mission02 on 70 25000.0 7 4
64 mission02 on 80 25000.0 7 4
65 mission02 on 90 25000.0 7 4
66 mission02 on 100 25000.0 7 4
67 mission02 on 110 25000.0 9 4
68 mission02 on 120 25000.0 14 4
69 mission02 on 130 25000.0 16 4
70 mission02 on 140 25000.0 19 4
71 mission02 on 150 25000.0 19 4
72 mission02 on 160 25000.0 23 5
73 mission02 on 170 24730.0 28 5
74 mission02 on 180 24730.0 32 5
75 mission02 on 190 24730.0 36 5
76 mission02 on 200 24640.0 43 6
77 mission02 on 210 24190.0 46 6
78 mission02 on 220 24055.0 47 6
79 mission02 on 220 24055.0 47 6
80 mission02 on 230 24055.0 49 6
81 mission02 on 230 24055.0 49 6
82 mission02 on 240 23474.5 52 6
83 mission02 on 240 23474.5 52 6
84 mission02 on 250 23474.5 53 6
85 mission02 on 250 23474.5 53 6
86 mission02 on 260 23474.5 54 6
87 mission02 on 260 23474.5 54 6
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89 mission02 on 270 22697.0 54 6
90 mission02 on 280 22091.2 56 6
91 mission02 on 280 22091.2 55 7
92 mission02 on 290 21577.9 55 7
93 mission02 on 290 21555.4 55 7
94 mission02 on 300 20799.1 56 7
95 mission02 on 310 19781.1 55 7
96 mission02 on 320 18925.8 56 8
97 mission02 on 330 18592.5 56 8
98 mission02 on 340 17432.5 57 8
99 mission02 on 350 16932.6 59 8
100 mission02 on 360 16171.6 58 9
101 mission02 on 370 15017.6 58 11
102 mission02 on 380 14217.2 59 11
103 mission02 on 390 13322.2 59 12
104 mission02 on 400 12808.9 58 13
105 mission02 on 410 12090.6 61 16
106 mission02 on 420 11440.6 66 19
107 mission02 on 430 11127.3 55 19
108 mission03 on 0 25000.0 0 0
109 mission03 on 10 25000.0 3 0
110 mission03 on 20 25000.0 8 0
111 mission03 on 30 25000.0 5 0
112 mission03 on 40 25000.0 6 0
113 mission03 on 50 25000.0 8 0
114 mission03 on 60 25000.0 9 0
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122 mission03 on 140 25000.0 11 6
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127 mission03 on 190 24640.0 27 7
128 mission03 on 200 24460.0 26 8
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130 mission03 on 220 24100.0 29 9
131 mission03 on 230 24100.0 28 11
132 mission03 on 230 24100.0 28 11
133 mission03 on 240 23810.0 35 11
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135 mission03 on 250 23630.0 36 12
136 mission03 on 250 23630.0 36 12
137 mission03 on 260 23630.0 38 13
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139 mission03 on 270 22998.0 39 13
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141 mission03 on 280 22197.5 40 13
142 mission03 on 280 22188.5 40 13
143 mission03 on 290 21602.4 38 13
144 mission03 on 290 21602.4 38 13
145 mission03 on 300 21042.4 39 13
146 mission03 on 300 20975.8 39 13
147 mission03 on 310 20529.1 41 15
148 mission03 on 310 20529.1 41 15
149 mission03 on 320 19812.5 38 17
150 mission03 on 320 19767.5 38 17
151 mission03 on 330 19434.2 39 18
152 mission03 on 340 18785.9 37 19
153 mission03 on 350 18339.2 37 19
154 mission03 on 360 17528.1 38 19
155 mission03 on 370 16901.5 37 19
156 mission03 on 380 16260.7 35 19
157 mission03 on 390 15708.2 37 19
158 mission03 on 400 15346.2 37 19
159 mission03 on 410 14412.1 36 20
160 mission03 on 420 13951.9 37 22
161 mission03 on 430 13211.9 35 23

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