pilot: RB fires, Y is the main mount, and guided missiles produce the first kills

fire_probe.sh holds each pad input in flight and photographs the HUD ammo
counters. RB moves NOSE BM 06000 -> 05956 in 4 s (~11 rounds/s, HEAT rises);
Y moves MAIN MPM 00300 -> 00299; nothing else moves either counter. So the
control mapping is measured rather than assumed, and 'we never shoot' is dead:
we shoot and miss.

The disc data says to stop shooting: Shell_TCAF_DeltaSaber_Missile_P is Power
200, GuidanceType 5 (guided), MaximumRange 5000, versus the nose gun's Power 15
unguided — one missile is worth ~14 gun hits on a 500 HP fighter and it steers
itself. Launching them (press Y, release a tick later, >=2 s apart) produced
YOU KILLED: WARPLANES 0002 — the first non-zero kill counter of the series,
against 0000 in all five gun-only runs, with hostiles down 134 -> 104.

Still only 2 kills per 98 missiles (~2%). Likely cause: the game expects a lock
before launch and an unlocked missile is wasted. Reading the lock state out of
RAM is the next step.

tools/re-capture/fire_probe.sh

@@ -0,0 +1,42 @@
+#!/usr/bin/env bash
+# Does the pad actually DISCHARGE a weapon? Hold each candidate input in turn
+# and photograph the HUD's ammo counters.
+#
+# Why this exists: the autopilot's HUD kill counters read WARSHIPS 0000 /
+# WARPLANES 0000 at the end of every run, in every targeting configuration, so
+# "fraction of frames with the guns commanded on" was never measuring anything.
+# Before tuning aim any further, settle the prior question — whether the fire
+# command reaches the gun at all. The HUD carries a live ammo count (`MAIN MPM
+# 00300`, matched to `LoadingCount` by the weapon RE), so the counter falling
+# during a hold is direct evidence of a discharge, and the counter sitting still
+# through every button is direct evidence that we have never fired a shot.
+#
+# `RB fires` came from an earlier session; this re-tests it rather than assuming
+# it, and sweeps the other buttons so a wrong mapping cannot hide.
+set -u
+export HOME=/sylph-home/re SDL_AUDIODRIVER=dummy DISPLAY=:98
+export PYTHONPATH=/sylph-home/.local/lib/python3.12/site-packages
+SD="$(cd "$(dirname "$0")" && pwd)"
+SHOTS=/sylph-home/re/shots
+HOLD="${1:-4}"
+
+shot(){ screenshot "$SHOTS/fire-$1.png" >/dev/null 2>&1; echo "  shot $1"; }
+
+"$SD/launch_mission.sh" fly || { echo "BOOT FAILED"; exit 1; }
+sleep 3
+echo "=== probing (hold ${HOLD}s each) ==="
+shot "00-idle"
+
+# RB first: it is the incumbent claim. Then the rest, so a wrong mapping cannot
+# hide behind it. A/B/X/Y may also switch weapon or open something — that is
+# fine for a probe, and the final frame records wherever it ended up.
+for b in RB LB Y X B A LS RS; do
+  vgamepad press "$b"; sleep "$HOLD"; shot "hold-$b"; vgamepad release "$b"; sleep 1.5
+done
+
+# triggers are analogue, not buttons
+vgamepad trig RT 1.0; sleep "$HOLD"; shot "hold-RT"; vgamepad trig RT 0.0; sleep 1.5
+vgamepad trig LT 1.0; sleep "$HOLD"; shot "hold-LT"; vgamepad trig LT 0.0; sleep 1.5
+vgamepad reset
+shot "99-final"
+echo "PROBE DONE"