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re: cheap probe verified; its one "arrival" is flicker

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First run of wave7_probe: zero stalled samples across the whole run, against
three consecutive heavy-probe runs that stalled at roughly 27, 83 and 255 s. The
fix works. The guest is also visibly healthier -- 19 losses against 8 in a
heavy-probe run of comparable length -- so starving the emulator had been
suppressing the very activity the probe existed to watch.

It also reported the first arrival of the whole line of work, and that arrival
does not survive inspection. A record went 1 -> 0 at t=229, 0 -> 2 at t=259 and
2 -> 0 at t=274. Two craft appearing and vanishing within fifteen seconds is not
a wave.

The same log contains the giveaway: at t=60 a record read 13 and at t=75 the
same record read 14, an increase, with nothing printed, because the probe only
surfaced decreases. The hull-based liveness read flickers, and a flicker that
straddles zero was indistinguishable from an arrival under the old rule. The
count therefore stands at zero confirmed arrivals in eleven runs.

Two changes, neither yet exercised: every increase is printed rather than only
those from zero, and an increase from zero counts only if it persists across two
consecutive samples, with a candidate that returns to zero discarded as flicker.

Recorded because it was close: under the old rule this run would have been
written up as "first arrival observed", which would have been the
strongest-looking result so far and wrong.
This commit is contained in:
Sylpheed RE agent
2026-08-24 16:28:59 +00:00
parent f92d60483a
commit ce235e153b
4 changed files with 87 additions and 9 deletions
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12
docs/re/BACKLOG.md
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@@ -410,9 +410,15 @@ search cannot find a *schedule*.
⚠️ **Consequence: every "no arrival" result was collected under a struggling or
frozen guest** — none is as strong as written, and the arrival question needs
re-running with cheap sampling before silence means anything.
✅ Fix written: `wave7_probe.py` enumerates once then polls only the hull word
per known craft (~1.2 KB/sample vs 32 MB), full rescan every 90 s — **not yet
run**. ❔ Multi-squadron threshold test still not run (zero losses that run).
✅ **Fix VERIFIED (2026-08-24)**: `wave7_probe.py` (enumerate once, then poll
only the hull word per known craft, ~1.2 KB/sample, rescan every 90 s) ran
**0 stalled samples** and produced **19 losses vs 8** — starving the emulator
had been suppressing the activity the probe existed to watch.
🔴 **Its one apparent arrival (`0→2` at t=259 s) is FLICKER, not a wave** — it
reverted to 0 fifteen seconds later, and the same log shows a record reading 13
then 14 with no event printed because only decreases were surfaced. Count
stands at **0 confirmed arrivals in 11 runs**. Probe now prints every increase
and requires an arrival to **persist across 2 samples** (not yet run). ❔ Multi-squadron threshold test still not run (zero losses that run).
⚠️ The ~210 s title movie at boot is the binding constraint on observable game
time per turn.
Earlier framing: