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re: cheap probe verified; its one "arrival" is flicker

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First run of wave7_probe: zero stalled samples across the whole run, against
three consecutive heavy-probe runs that stalled at roughly 27, 83 and 255 s. The
fix works. The guest is also visibly healthier -- 19 losses against 8 in a
heavy-probe run of comparable length -- so starving the emulator had been
suppressing the very activity the probe existed to watch.

It also reported the first arrival of the whole line of work, and that arrival
does not survive inspection. A record went 1 -> 0 at t=229, 0 -> 2 at t=259 and
2 -> 0 at t=274. Two craft appearing and vanishing within fifteen seconds is not
a wave.

The same log contains the giveaway: at t=60 a record read 13 and at t=75 the
same record read 14, an increase, with nothing printed, because the probe only
surfaced decreases. The hull-based liveness read flickers, and a flicker that
straddles zero was indistinguishable from an arrival under the old rule. The
count therefore stands at zero confirmed arrivals in eleven runs.

Two changes, neither yet exercised: every increase is printed rather than only
those from zero, and an increase from zero counts only if it persists across two
consecutive samples, with a candidate that returns to zero discarded as flicker.

Recorded because it was close: under the old rule this run would have been
written up as "first arrival observed", which would have been the
strongest-looking result so far and wrong.
This commit is contained in:
Sylpheed RE agent
2026-08-24 16:28:59 +00:00
parent f92d60483a
commit ce235e153b
4 changed files with 87 additions and 9 deletions
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30
tools/re-capture/wave7_probe.py
View File

@@ -89,6 +89,7 @@ def main():
print('t= 0s deployed=%d strengths %s'
% (len(prev), sorted(collections.Counter(prev.values()).items())), flush=True)
t0 = time.time(); last_rescan = t0; arr = los = 0; stalls = 0
pending, confirmed = {}, 0
while time.time() - t0 < secs:
time.sleep(every)
el = round(time.time() - t0)
@@ -100,15 +101,32 @@ def main():
now = struct.unpack('>I', os.pread(fd, 4, tick))[0]
if now <= last_tick: st = ' *** GUEST STALLED ***'; stalls += 1
last_tick = now
a_ = [(o, cur[o]) for o in cur if prev.get(o, 0) == 0 < cur[o]]
# Report EVERY increase, not just 0 -> n. The first run logged a record
# reading 13 then 14 with no event printed, which is how flicker in the
# hull-based liveness read hides: only decreases were being surfaced, so
# a spurious 0 -> 2 looked like an arrival while 13 -> 14 looked like
# nothing. An arrival must also PERSIST to count.
a_ = [(o, prev.get(o, 0), cur[o]) for o in cur if cur[o] > prev.get(o, 0)]
l_ = [(o, prev[o], cur.get(o, 0)) for o in prev if cur.get(o, 0) < prev[o]]
arr += len(a_); los += len(l_)
print('t=%4ds deployed=%d ARRIVALS=%d losses=%d (cum %d/%d)%s'
% (el, len(cur), len(a_), len(l_), arr, los, st), flush=True)
for o, c in a_: print(' ARRIVAL %-30s 0 -> %d' % (label.get(o, '?'), c), flush=True)
for o, x, y in a_:
if x == 0: pending[o] = pending.get(o, 0) + 1
for o in list(pending):
if cur.get(o, 0) == 0: pending.pop(o, None) # vanished: flicker
elif pending[o] == 2:
confirmed += 1
print(' *** CONFIRMED ARRIVAL %-26s now %d (persisted 2 samples)'
% (label.get(o, '?'), cur[o]), flush=True)
pending[o] = 3
arr += sum(1 for x in a_ if x[1] == 0); los += len(l_)
print('t=%4ds deployed=%d up=%d down=%d (cum up %d / down %d, confirmed %d)%s'
% (el, len(cur), len(a_), len(l_), arr, los, confirmed, st), flush=True)
for o, x, y in a_:
print(' up %-30s %d -> %d%s' % (label.get(o, '?'), x, y,
' <- candidate arrival' if x == 0 else ''), flush=True)
for o, x, y in l_: print(' loss %-30s %d -> %d' % (label.get(o, '?'), x, y), flush=True)
prev = cur
print('\nTOTAL arrivals=%d losses=%d stalled samples=%d' % (arr, los, stalls))
print('\nTOTAL candidate-up=%d down=%d CONFIRMED arrivals=%d stalled samples=%d'
% (arr, los, confirmed, stalls))
return 0
if __name__ == '__main__':