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re: withdraw the DisableInterval / delayed-route association -- it is a clustering artefact

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The pooled cross-tab gave p ~= 0.02 for 'no Yes-flagged squadron has a delayed
route', recorded at a cautious yellow. Breaking it down by stage removes it:
all 55 Yes routes live in 2 stages, and 45 are in S14, which has NO delayed
route at all -- those 45 cannot be evidence either way. Only S04 contains both
a Yes squadron and a delayed route.

Within S04 the exact test is P = C(47,5)/C(57,5) = 0.37, expected 0.88 observed
0. Unremarkable. The pooled p treated 1023 routes as independent draws when they
are two clusters.

The doc had already flagged this as the kind of near-fit that misled the corpus
before; that caution was right and did not go far enough.
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Sylpheed RE agent
2026-08-26 04:53:13 +00:00
parent f64600fa39
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docs/re/mission-wave-arrivals.md
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@@ -282,6 +282,34 @@ statistic is exactly the kind of near-fit that has already misled this corpus
once (the "109 of 111" squadron-name base in
[structures/unit-group-table.md](structures/unit-group-table.md)).
### ❌ WITHDRAWN (2026-08-26) — the p ≈ 0.02 does not survive the clustering
The caution above was right and did not go far enough. Breaking the same
cross-tab down **by stage** destroys the result:
| stage | No, t=0 | No, t>0 | **Yes, t=0** | **Yes, t>0** |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| S04 | 42 | 5 | **10** | 0 |
| S14 | 22 | 0 | **45** | 0 |
| the other 9 stages with delayed routes | 836 | 63 | 0 | 0 |
All 55 `DisableInterval = Yes` routes live in **two** stages, and **45 of them
are in S14, which has no delayed route at all** — no squadron there is delayed
whether it sets the flag or not, so those 45 cannot be evidence of anything.
Only **one** stage, S04, contains both a `Yes` squadron and a delayed route.
The pooled p ≈ 0.02 treated 1 023 routes as independent draws when they are
really two clusters. The test that actually bears on the hypothesis is within
S04, and there it is:
P(none of S04's 5 delayed routes belongs to one of its 10 Yes squadrons)
= C(47,5) / C(57,5) = 0.37
Expected count under independence: **0.88**, observed **0**. That is entirely
unremarkable. **The association is not supported by the data**, and the
"`DisableInterval` finally has a plausible referent" reading above rests on the
name alone, not on this table.
Name matching for this table is sound: for Stage 02, 108 of 111 squadrons have
routes and 113 route names resolve, so the cross-tab is not an artefact of
failed joins.