diff --git a/docs/re/BACKLOG.md b/docs/re/BACKLOG.md
index 1f7eb16..39bf7fc 100644
--- a/docs/re/BACKLOG.md
+++ b/docs/re/BACKLOG.md
@@ -347,8 +347,17 @@ search cannot find a *schedule*.
   Fan-in: only **41 of 116** records have craft (2×24, 4×1, 8×4, 18×12 = 300).
   ⇒ **an arrival is craft appearing for a record that had none; a kill is that
   count decreasing — both attributable to a named squadron**, hence to a route.
-  **Next:** watch PER-RECORD craft counts over a mission (not the global total);
-  that is the kill-vs-no-kill test with squadron resolution.
+  🔴 **BLOCKER (2026-08-24): the per-record measurement does not reproduce.**
+  [`mission-per-record-strength.md`](mission-per-record-strength.md) — one run
+  gives 116 records/300 craft, the next 42/170, same disc, save and script. Save
+  drift is REFUTED (savedata untouched since 2026-08-23) and the guest was not
+  frozen (pilot telemetry shows live engagement). Also: **zero arrivals and zero
+  losses in 190 s of hunting** — weak evidence against clock arrivals at
+  t=90/120/170 s, and no test of event-gating at all because nothing was killed
+  (`fc=0`, hull never moved). **Next: (1)** sample the roster-record count
+  repeatedly WITHIN one run to tell a load race from a run-specific constant;
+  **(2)** get a confirmed kill — the pilot reaches 259 m and still misses, so the
+  gap is accuracy, not engagement.
 * 🟡 **COMPETING MODEL (user, 2026-08-24): waves are event-gated, not
   clock-driven** — released by kills/objectives rather than at a fixed time, with
   the route's start time being a post-trigger delay. Fits the evidence better:
diff --git a/docs/re/mission-per-record-strength.md b/docs/re/mission-per-record-strength.md
new file mode 100644
index 0000000..2a351f2
--- /dev/null
+++ b/docs/re/mission-per-record-strength.md
@@ -0,0 +1,74 @@
+# Per-record craft strength — the measurement works, the run does not reproduce
+
+Status: ✅ the per-record measurement is internally consistent; 🔴 it does **not**
+reproduce across runs, and that is now the blocker; 🔴 zero arrivals and zero
+losses in 190 s of hunting, which does not test the event-gated model.
+
+Follows [roster-to-craft-link.md](roster-to-craft-link.md): craft point at
+`roster_base + 0x08`, so a member's live strength is how many craft point at it,
+and an arrival should be a `0 → n` transition on one record.
+
+## ✅ The measurement itself is sound
+
+`tools/re-capture/wave5_probe.py` counted craft per roster record every ~20 s.
+The first sample:
+
+```
+craft=170   deployed records=24/42   strength histogram [(2, 11), (8, 2), (12, 11)]
+```
+
+11·2 + 2·8 + 11·12 = **170**, exactly the craft total. The per-record decomposition
+is internally consistent, and 24 of 42 records deployed with 18 holding nothing
+is the same shape as the previous run's 41 of 116.
+
+## 🔴 But the numbers do not reproduce across runs
+
+| run | roster records | craft | deployed | strengths |
+|---|---|---|---|---|
+| link2 (earlier) | **116** | **300** | 41 | 2, 4, 8, **18** |
+| wave5 (this one) | **42** | **170** | 24 | 2, 8, **12** |
+
+Same disc, same save slot, same launch script, same stage.
+
+**The save has not drifted** — that was the first suspicion and it is refuted:
+`content/.../game01/savedata` is unmodified since 2026-08-23 16:37; only the
+profile `.gpd` files were written today.
+
+**The guest was not frozen** — the pilot's telemetry over the same 190 s shows
+speed varying across dozens of values and a live engagement (`tgt=e007_ADAN_Turret`
+at 259–680 m), so the game was advancing normally.
+
+So the discrepancy is real and unexplained. Candidates, none tested:
+
+* the probe samples at a different point in the mission's deployment and the
+  roster-record set is still being built (argued against by the counts being
+  *completely static* for 190 s afterwards — if it were still loading, it should
+  have grown toward 116);
+* `gmem.extents()` races the emulator's allocation, so the vtable scan sees a
+  different set of extents between runs;
+* deployment strength genuinely varies per run (turret squadrons at 18 vs 12).
+
+Until this is understood, **per-record counts cannot be used as a time series**,
+and no cross-run comparison of them means anything. This is the same discipline
+already recorded for the global craft count, now needed one level down.
+
+## 🔴 Zero arrivals, zero losses in 190 s
+
+Every sample was identical: 170 craft, 24 deployed, no `0 → n`, no `n → n−1`.
+
+* **Against the clock model**, weakly: if phase-1 arrivals were at t = 90/120/170
+  seconds, a `0 → n` should have appeared, and none did.
+* **It does not test the event-gated model at all**, because nothing was killed.
+  The pilot engaged continuously — closing to 259 m on turrets — but `fc=0`, no
+  record lost strength, and the player's own hull never moved off 1500. It shot
+  and missed, which `pilot.py`'s own notes say has happened before.
+
+## What is needed next
+
+1. **Explain the 42-vs-116 discrepancy** before trusting any per-record series.
+   Cheapest test: sample the roster-record count repeatedly *within one run*,
+   starting the instant flight is detected. If it climbs, it is a load race; if
+   it is flat at a run-specific value, it is not.
+2. **Get a confirmed kill.** Without one, the kill-versus-no-kill experiment
+   cannot run. The pilot reaches firing range and does not destroy anything, so
+   the gap is accuracy, not engagement.
diff --git a/tools/re-capture/wave5_probe.py b/tools/re-capture/wave5_probe.py
new file mode 100755
index 0000000..285b4f0
--- /dev/null
+++ b/tools/re-capture/wave5_probe.py
@@ -0,0 +1,104 @@
+#!/usr/bin/env python3
+"""Per-record craft counts over a mission: catch arrivals and kills by squadron.
+
+The link is a pointer at roster_base + 0x08, verified 300/300 by independent
+unit-type agreement (roster-to-craft-link.md). So a roster member's live
+strength is simply how many craft point at it:
+
+    0 -> n   the member deployed  (an ARRIVAL)
+    n -> n-1 one of its craft died (a KILL)
+
+Both are attributable to a UnitGroup member, which is what ties an observation
+back to Route_S<NN>.tbl. This watches those counts instead of any global total.
+"""
+import os, sys, time, struct, collections, importlib.util
+SD = __file__.rsplit('/', 1)[0]
+sys.path.insert(0, SD)
+import gmem, gworld, entities2
+_w3 = importlib.util.spec_from_file_location('w3', SD + '/wave3_probe.py')
+wave3 = importlib.util.module_from_spec(_w3); _w3.loader.exec_module(wave3)
+
+ROSTER_VT = struct.pack('>I', 0x820AF030)
+DELTA, WIN, LINK = 0x130, 0x400, 0x08
+
+def scan_vt(fd, size, vt):
+    out = []
+    for a, b in gmem.extents(fd, size):
+        pos = a
+        while pos < b:
+            n = min(1 << 24, b - pos)
+            blob = os.pread(fd, n, pos)
+            i = blob.find(vt)
+            while i != -1:
+                if (pos + i) % 4 == 0: out.append(pos + i)
+                i = blob.find(vt, i + 1)
+            pos += n
+    return sorted(out)
+
+def counts(fd, defs, want):
+    """craft per roster VA, this instant"""
+    lo, hi = gmem.va_to_off(entities2.ENT_VA_LO), gmem.va_to_off(entities2.ENT_VA_HI)
+    per = collections.Counter(); pos = lo; n = 0
+    while pos < hi:
+        m = min(1 << 24, hi - pos)
+        blob = os.pread(fd, m, pos)
+        for k in range(0, len(blob) - 3, 4):
+            if blob[k:k+4] in defs:
+                base = pos + k - DELTA
+                n += 1
+                head = os.pread(fd, WIN, base)
+                for j in range(0, len(head) - 3, 4):
+                    (p,) = struct.unpack_from('>I', head, j)
+                    if p in want:
+                        per[want[p]] += 1
+                        break
+        pos += m
+    return per, n
+
+def main():
+    secs  = int(sys.argv[1]) if len(sys.argv) > 1 else 200
+    every = int(sys.argv[2]) if len(sys.argv) > 2 else 15
+    w = gworld.World(); fd = w.fd
+    defs = entities2.definitions(w)
+    if not defs: print('NOT IN A MISSION'); return 2
+    roster = scan_vt(fd, w.size, ROSTER_VT)
+    f = os.fdopen(os.dup(fd), 'rb')
+    label, want = {}, {}
+    for o in roster:
+        va = gmem.primary_va(o)
+        if va is None: continue
+        label[va] = wave3.resolve_id(f, w.size, o)[0] or '?'
+        want[va + LINK] = va
+    print('roster records: %d' % len(label))
+
+    log = open('/tmp/wave5-per-record.tsv', 'w')
+    log.write('t\tva\tunit\tfrom\tto\n')
+    prev, total0 = None, None
+    t0 = time.time()
+    while time.time() - t0 < secs:
+        per, n = counts(fd, defs, want)
+        el = round(time.time() - t0)
+        if prev is None:
+            print('t=%4ds  craft=%d  deployed records=%d/%d  strength histogram %s'
+                  % (el, n, len(per), len(label),
+                     sorted(collections.Counter(per.values()).items())))
+        else:
+            arr = [(va, per[va]) for va in per if prev.get(va, 0) == 0 and per[va] > 0]
+            kil = [(va, prev[va], per[va]) for va in prev
+                   if per.get(va, 0) < prev[va]]
+            print('t=%4ds  craft=%d  deployed=%d  ARRIVALS=%d  losses=%d'
+                  % (el, n, len(per), len(arr), len(kil)), flush=True)
+            for va, c in arr:
+                print('    ARRIVAL  %#010x %-30s  0 -> %d' % (va, label.get(va, '?'), c))
+                log.write('%d\t%#x\t%s\t0\t%d\n' % (el, va, label.get(va, '?'), c))
+            for va, a, b in kil:
+                print('    loss     %#010x %-30s  %d -> %d' % (va, label.get(va, '?'), a, b))
+                log.write('%d\t%#x\t%s\t%d\t%d\n' % (el, va, label.get(va, '?'), a, b))
+            log.flush()
+        prev = per
+        time.sleep(max(0, every - (time.time() - t0 - el)))
+    log.close()
+    return 0
+
+if __name__ == '__main__':
+    sys.exit(main())
diff --git a/tools/re-capture/wave5_session.sh b/tools/re-capture/wave5_session.sh
new file mode 100755
index 0000000..a35d47e
--- /dev/null
+++ b/tools/re-capture/wave5_session.sh
@@ -0,0 +1,16 @@
+#!/usr/bin/env bash
+set -u
+export HOME=/sylph-home/re SDL_AUDIODRIVER=dummy DISPLAY=:98
+export PYTHONPATH=/sylph-home/.local/lib/python3.12/site-packages
+SD="$(cd "$(dirname "$0")" && pwd)"
+SECS="${1:-180}"; EVERY="${2:-10}"; HUNT="${3:-1}"
+CFG=/tmp/nav-live.json
+"$SD/launch_mission.sh" fly || { echo "BOOT FAILED"; exit 1; }
+if python3 "$SD/entities2.py" self 0x130 "$CFG" >/dev/null 2>&1; then
+  SYLPH_HUNT="$HUNT" SYLPH_KILL_TURRETS=1 nohup python3 "$SD/pilot.py" "$CFG" "$SECS" \
+      </dev/null >/tmp/live-pilot.log 2>&1 &
+  PILOT=$!; echo "--- pilot (SYLPH_HUNT=$HUNT)"
+else PILOT=""; echo "--- BIND FAILED, no pilot"; fi
+python3 "$SD/wave5_probe.py"  ; rc=$?
+[ -n "$PILOT" ] && kill "$PILOT" 2>/dev/null
+echo "LIVENESS DONE rc=$rc"