d986a8564c
The pooled cross-tab gave p ~= 0.02 for 'no Yes-flagged squadron has a delayed route', recorded at a cautious yellow. Breaking it down by stage removes it: all 55 Yes routes live in 2 stages, and 45 are in S14, which has NO delayed route at all -- those 45 cannot be evidence either way. Only S04 contains both a Yes squadron and a delayed route. Within S04 the exact test is P = C(47,5)/C(57,5) = 0.37, expected 0.88 observed 0. Unremarkable. The pooled p treated 1023 routes as independent draws when they are two clusters. The doc had already flagged this as the kind of near-fit that misled the corpus before; that caution was right and did not go far enough.