Syplheed-Reborn/docs/re/captures/escort-decay-ab.csv at de357ffdc9a6e22c199ff1c233f1b2199753a693

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Claude (auto-RE) 5c3e3dfe47 re: making turrets targets does not save the escort — the effect is inside the noise

The Stage-02 outcome write-up ended by naming "turrets near the asset must
become targets" as the fix worth ~50% of the escort damage. That was an
inference from a co-presence attribution, not a measurement. Run it and it
does not hold.

Also corrects the run labelling: pilot.py gained the SYLPH_KILL_TURRETS gate
two minutes before mission02 started, so mission02 was already a treatment run,
not a second baseline. Only mission01 (0 of 3968 pilot frames targeting a
turret) is the baseline.

At a common t=428s: baseline 46.9% escort hull, treatment 44.5% and 53.0%. The
two runs of the same arm differ by more than either differs from the baseline,
and the escort still reaches zero at t~590-670s in all three. So the
transferable finding is the power limit: one 430s flight cannot resolve an
effect below ~9 percentage points, and every single-run pilot conclusion,
including this one's, is inside it.

What does reproduce: the assault is scripted (onset 166/167/166s), and the
e007/e010 damage split is 50/50 in all three arms including the one that never
fires at a turret -- so that attribution measures the wave script, not us.

Also records that the viewer's include_external hypothesis in BACKLOG is dead
(it defaults true and is threaded through unchanged).

2026-08-11 05:29:52 +00:00

4.8 KiB

Raw Blame History

1	run	turret_rule	t_s	acropolis_hull	e007_alive	e007_killed_cum
2	mission01	off	0	25000.0	0	0
3	mission01	off	10	25000.0	5	0
4	mission01	off	20	25000.0	6	0
5	mission01	off	30	25000.0	6	0
6	mission01	off	40	25000.0	6	0
7	mission01	off	50	25000.0	8	0
8	mission01	off	60	25000.0	11	0
9	mission01	off	70	25000.0	11	3
10	mission01	off	80	25000.0	8	3
11	mission01	off	90	25000.0	8	3
12	mission01	off	100	25000.0	10	3
13	mission01	off	110	25000.0	14	3
14	mission01	off	120	25000.0	16	3
15	mission01	off	130	25000.0	17	3
16	mission01	off	140	25000.0	20	3
17	mission01	off	150	25000.0	23	3
18	mission01	off	160	25000.0	26	4
19	mission01	off	170	24509.5	33	4
20	mission01	off	180	24509.5	37	4
21	mission01	off	190	24419.5	38	5
22	mission01	off	200	24212.5	41	5
23	mission01	off	210	23447.5	40	5
24	mission01	off	220	23447.5	40	5
25	mission01	off	220	23447.5	40	5
26	mission01	off	230	23447.5	41	5
27	mission01	off	230	23447.5	41	5
28	mission01	off	240	22912.0	43	5
29	mission01	off	240	22867.0	43	5
30	mission01	off	250	22667.0	42	6
31	mission01	off	250	22647.0	42	6
32	mission01	off	260	22334.5	44	6
33	mission01	off	260	22177.9	44	6
34	mission01	off	270	21101.2	46	6
35	mission01	off	270	21101.2	45	6
36	mission01	off	280	20292.6	46	6
37	mission01	off	280	20279.1	46	6
38	mission01	off	290	19598.5	58	6
39	mission01	off	290	19598.5	58	6
40	mission01	off	300	18725.2	58	6
41	mission01	off	300	18658.5	47	6
42	mission01	off	310	18231.9	47	6
43	mission01	off	310	18231.9	47	6
44	mission01	off	320	17425.2	47	6
45	mission01	off	330	17046.9	49	6
46	mission01	off	340	16044.8	49	7
47	mission01	off	350	15461.5	50	7
48	mission01	off	360	14956.3	51	7
49	mission01	off	370	14425.5	51	8
50	mission01	off	380	13910.5	51	8
51	mission01	off	390	13418.9	49	11
52	mission01	off	400	13218.9	45	12
53	mission01	off	410	12517.9	44	12
54	mission01	off	420	12161.3	44	13
55	mission01	off	430	11601.3	44	13
56	mission02	on	0	25000.0	0	0
57	mission02	on	10	25000.0	5	0
58	mission02	on	20	25000.0	6	0
59	mission02	on	30	25000.0	5	0
60	mission02	on	40	25000.0	5	1
61	mission02	on	50	25000.0	7	1
62	mission02	on	60	25000.0	10	1
63	mission02	on	70	25000.0	7	4
64	mission02	on	80	25000.0	7	4
65	mission02	on	90	25000.0	7	4
66	mission02	on	100	25000.0	7	4
67	mission02	on	110	25000.0	9	4
68	mission02	on	120	25000.0	14	4
69	mission02	on	130	25000.0	16	4
70	mission02	on	140	25000.0	19	4
71	mission02	on	150	25000.0	19	4
72	mission02	on	160	25000.0	23	5
73	mission02	on	170	24730.0	28	5
74	mission02	on	180	24730.0	32	5
75	mission02	on	190	24730.0	36	5
76	mission02	on	200	24640.0	43	6
77	mission02	on	210	24190.0	46	6
78	mission02	on	220	24055.0	47	6
79	mission02	on	220	24055.0	47	6
80	mission02	on	230	24055.0	49	6
81	mission02	on	230	24055.0	49	6
82	mission02	on	240	23474.5	52	6
83	mission02	on	240	23474.5	52	6
84	mission02	on	250	23474.5	53	6
85	mission02	on	250	23474.5	53	6
86	mission02	on	260	23474.5	54	6
87	mission02	on	260	23474.5	54	6
88	mission02	on	270	22697.0	54	6
89	mission02	on	270	22697.0	54	6
90	mission02	on	280	22091.2	56	6
91	mission02	on	280	22091.2	55	7
92	mission02	on	290	21577.9	55	7
93	mission02	on	290	21555.4	55	7
94	mission02	on	300	20799.1	56	7
95	mission02	on	310	19781.1	55	7
96	mission02	on	320	18925.8	56	8
97	mission02	on	330	18592.5	56	8
98	mission02	on	340	17432.5	57	8
99	mission02	on	350	16932.6	59	8
100	mission02	on	360	16171.6	58	9
101	mission02	on	370	15017.6	58	11
102	mission02	on	380	14217.2	59	11
103	mission02	on	390	13322.2	59	12
104	mission02	on	400	12808.9	58	13
105	mission02	on	410	12090.6	61	16
106	mission02	on	420	11440.6	66	19
107	mission02	on	430	11127.3	55	19
108	mission03	on	0	25000.0	0	0
109	mission03	on	10	25000.0	3	0
110	mission03	on	20	25000.0	8	0
111	mission03	on	30	25000.0	5	0
112	mission03	on	40	25000.0	6	0
113	mission03	on	50	25000.0	8	0
114	mission03	on	60	25000.0	9	0
115	mission03	on	70	25000.0	16	0
116	mission03	on	80	25000.0	10	0
117	mission03	on	90	25000.0	11	0
118	mission03	on	100	25000.0	10	2
119	mission03	on	110	25000.0	15	2
120	mission03	on	120	25000.0	12	2
121	mission03	on	130	25000.0	10	4
122	mission03	on	140	25000.0	11	6
123	mission03	on	150	25000.0	14	6
124	mission03	on	160	25000.0	17	7
125	mission03	on	170	24685.0	24	7
126	mission03	on	180	24640.0	23	7
127	mission03	on	190	24640.0	27	7
128	mission03	on	200	24460.0	26	8
129	mission03	on	210	24100.0	28	8
130	mission03	on	220	24100.0	29	9
131	mission03	on	230	24100.0	28	11
132	mission03	on	230	24100.0	28	11
133	mission03	on	240	23810.0	35	11
134	mission03	on	240	23810.0	36	11
135	mission03	on	250	23630.0	36	12
136	mission03	on	250	23630.0	36	12
137	mission03	on	260	23630.0	38	13
138	mission03	on	260	23630.0	38	13
139	mission03	on	270	22998.0	39	13
140	mission03	on	270	22908.0	39	13
141	mission03	on	280	22197.5	40	13
142	mission03	on	280	22188.5	40	13
143	mission03	on	290	21602.4	38	13
144	mission03	on	290	21602.4	38	13
145	mission03	on	300	21042.4	39	13
146	mission03	on	300	20975.8	39	13
147	mission03	on	310	20529.1	41	15
148	mission03	on	310	20529.1	41	15
149	mission03	on	320	19812.5	38	17
150	mission03	on	320	19767.5	38	17
151	mission03	on	330	19434.2	39	18
152	mission03	on	340	18785.9	37	19
153	mission03	on	350	18339.2	37	19
154	mission03	on	360	17528.1	38	19
155	mission03	on	370	16901.5	37	19
156	mission03	on	380	16260.7	35	19
157	mission03	on	390	15708.2	37	19
158	mission03	on	400	15346.2	37	19
159	mission03	on	410	14412.1	36	20
160	mission03	on	420	13951.9	37	22
161	mission03	on	430	13211.9	35	23

4.8 KiB Raw Blame History

4.8 KiB

Raw Blame History