backlog+roster: 387-vs-300 solved, phase map found, three candidates refuted

docs/re/BACKLOG.md

@@ -933,7 +933,30 @@ premise was wrong.**
   `(tag, name, "")` with the **tags equal to the record keys**. Same convention
   as `Enumerate_Squadrons`. **Second sighting — treat it as the rule for the next
   table.**
-* 🟡 **Does NOT close the 387-vs-~300 gap** in `roster-to-craft-link.md`. Σ`n`
+* ✅✅ **(2026-08-25) 387-vs-~300 SOLVED — the probe double-counts.** The
+  squadron→phase map was on the disc all along, **in the `Route_S<NN>.tbl` record
+  names** (`Route_<squadron>_p<N><kind>`, 120/120 for S02); 108/111 S02 squadrons
+  map, the 3 misses are route-table typos and all phase 2. Phase 1 Σ`n` = **151**,
+  and its member multiset `{1×25, 2×1, 4×4, 9×12}` matches the measured
+  craft-per-record fan-in `{2×24, 4×1, 8×4, 18×12}` **bucket for bucket at
+  exactly 2×** ⇒ `300 = 2 × (151 − 1)`, the −1 being the known 41-vs-42
+  off-by-one (probably the player). **The 2× is the instrument, not the game:** a
+  2× reading needs 16 Delta Sabers for 8 named pilots, and breaks
+  `Σn ≤ FrameCount` in **20 of 37** phase-1 squadrons (16 on `Formation_1_only`,
+  one slot) where 1× has **0**. All three measured totals being even is a further
+  tell. ⚠️ Static argument about a dynamic measurement — it says the number cannot
+  mean what we thought, **not** what is being double-counted; that needs a run
+  against the craft-scan counting rule. See `mission-phase-membership.md`.
+* 🔴 **Refuted with it:** `UnitGroup` has **no** phase/spawn/delay field
+  (`1019 = ΣCount·4 + 5·111`, every slot accounted, positional tags are
+  sequential indices); `DisableInterval` is `No` for all 111 S02 squadrons (its
+  31 corpus `Yes` records are only S04 and S14, all `GNN***`);
+  **`stage\EnumSquadron_Test.tbl` does not exist** — that candidate is dead.
+* ❔ **What ADVANCES a phase is still unknown** and is not in the data: swept the
+  stage record and every table it names plus the `message\` family for
+  `interval|time|phase|delay|wave|spawn|arrival|trigger|start|appear|event|condition`
+  — only `FrameCount` and `PresetMessage_Phase1/2/3` hit. It is in the executable.
+* 🟡 ~~**Does NOT close the 387-vs-~300 gap**~~ in `roster-to-craft-link.md`. Σ`n`
   over Stage 02 is 387 vs 296–300 live craft, but that was measured mid-mission
   after kills and squadrons deploy across phases, so they are not comparable as
   they stand. The earlier rejection of `n` assumed everything deploys at once —

docs/re/roster-to-craft-link.md

@@ -1,5 +1,15 @@
 # The 116 roster records and the ~300 live craft are not directly linked
 
+> ✅ **SOLVED 2026-08-25 — see [mission-phase-membership](mission-phase-membership.md).**
+> The premise below is wrong: **there were never ~300 craft.** The probe counts
+> each craft **twice**. Phase 1 (read out of the `Route_S02.tbl` record names)
+> has Σ`n` = 151, and `300 = 2 × (151 − 1)`, the −1 being the 41-vs-42
+> off-by-one already recorded here. A 2× reading is impossible statically: it
+> needs 16 Delta Sabers for 8 named pilots and breaks the formation capacity
+> bound in 20 of 37 phase-1 squadrons, where the 1× reading has 0 violations.
+> The four refutations below all stand — they were just answering a question
+> built on a bad number.
+
 Status: 🔴 a direct pointer link is refuted in both directions; ✅ the two
 structures are in distinct heap regions; ❔ how a roster member expands into
 craft is still unknown.