re: bounded scan fixes the freeze; mission-over branch confirmed on the oracle

Bounding the pointer scan to 0xBC000000-0xBD000000 (with a full-sweep fallback)
drops find_mission from a ~371MB walk to 0.7s. The run then went 694s with the
probe attached and NO freeze, against 3-of-3 frozen inside ~4 minutes with the
unbounded version. n=1, but the first probe-attached run to survive.

State encoding pinned to three points: 1 = not yet deployed, 2 = active,
4 = destroyed. ADN111 caught going 2 -> 4 at 433s while the active count fell
36 -> 27.

The phase ended at 694.9s WITHOUT the ordinal advancing, and every field matches
the branch read statically from sub_82260710: [phase+300]=2 (last-phase flag),
[mission+20]=0 (mission-over state), [phase+196]=1 (finished), [mission+40]=1
(unchanged). The static state machine is confirmed on the live oracle for the
mission-over half.

But this was a LOSS, not a clear: GAME OVER on screen, escort at 35.7%, pilot
DEAD at 676s, and two of the three objective squadrons still at state 2. So the
'destroy all three clears phase 1' prediction remains untested. What is
established is that the else-branch is the only route to phase 2 and needs
[phase+300] != 2 when the phase ends.

Five attempts, still no phase advance observed -- the obstacle is now keeping the
escort alive, not the freeze or the instrument.

docs/re/script-runtime-probe.md

@@ -117,3 +117,67 @@ for them to be **destroyed**, which is when `[ScriptMission+40]` should step to
 `tools/re-capture/phase_watch.py` is the harness: it samples the real counter and
 the watched squadrons together, witnesses the freeze every 60 s, and prints only
 on change.
+
+## ✅ 2026-08-25 — the bounded scan fixes the freeze, and the state machine is confirmed live
+
+**The sweeps were the cost.** Bounding the pointer scan to `0xBC000000–0xBD000000`
+(with a full-sweep fallback) drops `find_mission` from a full ~371 MB walk to
+**0.7 s**. The run then went **694 s with the probe attached and no freeze**,
+against **3 of 3 frozen inside ~4 minutes** with the unbounded version. n=1, but
+it is the first probe-attached run to survive past four minutes.
+
+Full trace in `data/phase-watch-s02-full.txt`:
+
+```
+[   0.7s] phase=1 finished=0 active=24  ADN110:1 ADN111:1 ADN112:1
+[ 113.8s] phase=1 finished=0 active=33  ADN110:2 ADN111:2 ADN112:2   <- arrive
+[ 191.0s] phase=1 finished=0 active=36
+[ 433.0s] phase=1 finished=0 active=30  ADN110:2 ADN111:4 ADN112:2   <- ADN111 destroyed
+[ 631.7s] phase=1 finished=0 active=27
+[ 694.9s] phase=1 finished=1 active=27                               <- phase ends
+```
+
+### ✅ State 4 = destroyed — a squadron death caught in the act
+
+`ADN111` goes **2 → 4** at 433 s while the active count falls 36 → 27 over the
+same window. Together with the earlier 1 → 2 arrival this pins three points of
+the encoding: **1 = not yet deployed, 2 = active, 4 = destroyed**.
+
+### ✅ The mission-over branch, observed exactly as disassembled
+
+The phase ended at 694.9 s, but **the ordinal did not advance** — and the reason
+is the branch [mission-phase-advance](../mission-phase-advance.md) read out of
+`sub_82260710`:
+
+```
+if ([phase+300] == 2)  post 994 ; state = 0 ; MISSION OVER
+else                   state = 5 ; [mission+40] += 1   NEXT PHASE
+```
+
+Measured at the end of the run:
+
+| field | value | meaning |
+|---|---|---|
+| `[phase+300]` | **2** | last-phase flag set (built-in 39) |
+| `[mission+20]` | **0** | the mission-over state |
+| `[phase+196]` | **1** | phase finished |
+| `[mission+40]` | **1** | ordinal unchanged — correct for this branch |
+
+Every field matches the disassembled branch, on the live oracle. **The static
+reading of the phase state machine is confirmed** — for the mission-over half.
+
+### 🔴 This was a LOSS, not a phase clear
+
+`screen_id` shows the `GAME OVER` frame, the escort was down to **35.7 %**, and
+the pilot logged `DEAD` at 676 s. So a lose path ran built-in 39
+(`MARK_LAST_PHASE`) and then `END_PHASE`, which is why the mission ended instead
+of advancing.
+
+**Two of the three objective squadrons were still alive** (`ADN110` and `ADN112`
+at state 2), so this says nothing about whether destroying all three clears
+phase 1 — that prediction is **still untested**. What it does establish is that
+the `else` branch is the only way to reach phase 2, and it requires
+`[phase+300] != 2` at the moment the phase ends.
+
+**Still not observed: a phase ADVANCE.** Five attempts. The obstacle is no longer
+the freeze or the instrument — it is keeping the escort alive long enough to win.