re: per-record strength measured, but the run does not reproduce

The link from the previous iteration gives a per-record live strength, and the
measurement is internally sound: 11 records at 2, 2 at 8 and 11 at 12 sums to
exactly the 170 craft counted, with 24 of 42 records deployed.

It does not reproduce. The previous run saw 116 roster records and 300 craft
with strengths 2/4/8/18; this one sees 42 and 170 with 2/8/12 -- same disc, same
save slot, same launch script, same stage.

Two explanations were checked and both fail. The save has not drifted:
game01/savedata is unmodified since 2026-08-23 and only the profile .gpd files
were written today. The guest was not frozen: the pilot's telemetry over the
same 190 s shows speed varying across dozens of values and a live engagement
with an e007 Turret at 259-680 m.

So the discrepancy is real and unexplained, and until it is understood
per-record counts cannot be used as a time series. Recorded as the blocker
rather than worked around. The same within-run-only discipline already noted for
the global craft count now applies one level down.

Also recorded: zero arrivals and zero losses across 190 s. That is weak evidence
against clock-driven arrivals at t = 90/120/170 seconds, since a 0 -> n
transition should have appeared and none did. It is no test of the event-gated
model at all, because nothing was killed -- fc=0, no record lost strength, and
the player's hull never moved off 1500. The pilot closes to 259 m and misses, so
the gap is accuracy rather than engagement.

docs/re/BACKLOG.md

@@ -347,8 +347,17 @@ search cannot find a *schedule*.
   Fan-in: only **41 of 116** records have craft (2×24, 4×1, 8×4, 18×12 = 300).
   ⇒ **an arrival is craft appearing for a record that had none; a kill is that
   count decreasing — both attributable to a named squadron**, hence to a route.
-  **Next:** watch PER-RECORD craft counts over a mission (not the global total);
-  that is the kill-vs-no-kill test with squadron resolution.
+  🔴 **BLOCKER (2026-08-24): the per-record measurement does not reproduce.**
+  [`mission-per-record-strength.md`](mission-per-record-strength.md) — one run
+  gives 116 records/300 craft, the next 42/170, same disc, save and script. Save
+  drift is REFUTED (savedata untouched since 2026-08-23) and the guest was not
+  frozen (pilot telemetry shows live engagement). Also: **zero arrivals and zero
+  losses in 190 s of hunting** — weak evidence against clock arrivals at
+  t=90/120/170 s, and no test of event-gating at all because nothing was killed
+  (`fc=0`, hull never moved). **Next: (1)** sample the roster-record count
+  repeatedly WITHIN one run to tell a load race from a run-specific constant;
+  **(2)** get a confirmed kill — the pilot reaches 259 m and still misses, so the
+  gap is accuracy, not engagement.
 * 🟡 **COMPETING MODEL (user, 2026-08-24): waves are event-gated, not
   clock-driven** — released by kills/objectives rather than at a fixed time, with
   the route's start time being a post-trigger delay. Fits the evidence better: