re: the 42-vs-116 outlier does not reproduce; losses are observable

Two further runs sampled the counts from the instant flight is detected. Both
give 116 roster records in the very first sample, flat thereafter, with 14 unit
definitions throughout. That is not a load race: a race would climb toward 116
from below, and it never does.

The leading explanation was arithmetic rather than behavioural -- census_probe
counts raw aligned vtable hits while wave5_probe counted distinct primary_va
values, which are different quantities if an offset can alias to a VA another
offset also claims. Measuring both in the same run refutes it: 116 raw hits and
116 distinct VAs in every sample.

So the outlier stands unexplained. Four runs now read 116/300, 116/300, 116/296
and one 42/170, with save drift, freezing, load race and VA aliasing each
individually refuted. Recorded rather than dropped, because a one-in-four
anomaly in the measurement apparatus is what later turns into a wrong
conclusion. Practical rule adopted: discard a run that disagrees with 116 rather
than interpreting it, and reproduce any finding in at least two runs.

Useful new fact: craft declines steadily and monotonically in both runs, 300 to
288 and 296 to 280, roughly 16-20 losses over 168 s under the hunting pilot.
Whether the player or NPC crossfire is responsible is not determined here, but
destruction is visible in this signal, which is half of what the kill-versus-
no-kill experiment needs.

Still not observed in any run: an arrival.

docs/re/BACKLOG.md

@@ -347,7 +347,14 @@ search cannot find a *schedule*.
   Fan-in: only **41 of 116** records have craft (2×24, 4×1, 8×4, 18×12 = 300).
   ⇒ **an arrival is craft appearing for a record that had none; a kill is that
   count decreasing — both attributable to a named squadron**, hence to a route.
-  🔴 **BLOCKER (2026-08-24): the per-record measurement does not reproduce.**
+  ✅ **Blocker downgraded (2026-08-24): the baseline DOES reproduce** — two more
+  runs give 116 roster records flat from t=0 (not a load race) with craft
+  declining 300→288 and 296→280, so **losses are observable**. Raw hits ==
+  distinct VAs (116 == 116), so the VA-aliasing explanation is 🔴 refuted too.
+  🟡 The single 42/170 run stays unexplained; rule adopted: **discard a run that
+  disagrees with 116 rather than interpreting it, and reproduce any finding in
+  ≥2 runs.** ❔ No arrival seen in any run yet.
+  Earlier framing:
   [`mission-per-record-strength.md`](mission-per-record-strength.md) — one run
   gives 116 records/300 craft, the next 42/170, same disc, save and script. Save
   drift is REFUTED (savedata untouched since 2026-08-23) and the guest was not