re: six runs with no arrival, and an accidental no-pilot control

wave6_probe refuses to interpret a run whose roster count is not the reproduced
baseline of 116, per the discard rule. This run passed and its first sample is
identical to the earlier link run: 116 records, 300 craft, 41 deployed, strength
histogram 2x24, 4x1, 8x4, 18x12. The deployment is deterministic at mission
start.

The pilot failed to bind, which accidentally supplied the control condition the
kill-versus-no-kill experiment needed. With nobody flying, not one craft was
destroyed in four minutes -- exactly 300 across all 22 samples -- against 16-20
losses in each piloted run. So losses are attributable to the player being in
the fight, and NPC crossfire destroys nothing by itself. That was an open
question two iterations ago.

Still no arrival. Zero 0 -> n transitions in either condition, across roughly
fifteen minutes of cumulative Stage 02 flight and windows up to 240 s. The 75
records holding no craft at mission start still hold none at the end. Against a
route table scheduling phase-1 arrivals at t = 90/120/170/210/240, that is now a
strong negative rather than a null result.

Three readings survive: the timetable's t is not seconds (at 30 Hz the whole
phase-1 schedule finishes inside 8 s, before any first sample); arrivals are
event-gated and no run supplied the trigger; or the mission is not advancing its
phase clock at all.

The third has never been checked and is the cheapest to eliminate, so it is now
the prime suspect. Nothing in six runs has confirmed that mission time advances:
the craft count freezes without a pilot, REMAINING OB has never read as a
counter, and no clock has been located. Every "no arrival" observation is
consistent with a scheduler that simply is not running, in which case the
arrival results so far are measuring a stopped clock.

docs/re/BACKLOG.md

@@ -353,7 +353,17 @@ search cannot find a *schedule*.
   distinct VAs (116 == 116), so the VA-aliasing explanation is 🔴 refuted too.
   🟡 The single 42/170 run stays unexplained; rule adopted: **discard a run that
   disagrees with 116 rather than interpreting it, and reproduce any finding in
-  ≥2 runs.** ❔ No arrival seen in any run yet.
+  ≥2 runs.**
+* ✅🔴 **Six runs, no arrival — plus an accidental control**
+  ([`mission-arrival-watch.md`](mission-arrival-watch.md), 2026-08-24). Deployment
+  reproduces byte-for-byte (116 records, 300 craft, 41 deployed, strengths
+  2×24/4×1/8×4/18×12). ✅ **Losses require the player**: an unpiloted run held at
+  exactly 300 craft for 240 s / 22 samples, vs 16–20 losses in each piloted run —
+  so NPC crossfire destroys nothing on its own. 🔴 **Zero `0→n` arrivals in either
+  condition**, ~15 min cumulative. ❔ **Prime suspect: the phase clock may not be
+  advancing at all** — never checked. **Next: find the mission timer** (HUD digits
+  or a fixed-rate counter); if it is stopped, every arrival result so far is
+  measuring a stopped clock.
   Earlier framing:
   [`mission-per-record-strength.md`](mission-per-record-strength.md) — one run
   gives 116 records/300 craft, the next 42/170, same disc, save and script. Save